Bath 13:30: Value Analysis

Your Elite Club Handicap Stakes

Thursday 8 October 2026

Other Handicap GD 17.0f Class 6 12 runners
Our highest-rated PACIFIC STORM Our price 9/2 · Available 9/2 We make it 17% · the market says 18%
No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.
Why the model rates PACIFIC STORM top (17% chance)
  • ✓ Has been racing at a higher level than this lately
  • ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
  • ✓ Well treated on official ratings
  • ✕ Rated below the best in this race
  • ✕ Carries plenty of weight today

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
,
FRAM CASTLE NR
J: Taryn Langley(5) · T: Michael Wigham
Form: 08231 · C
— ·market —
—
—
—
 — Withdrawn
1
PACIFIC STORM ★ Top Rated
J: Jack Dace(5) · T: David Menuisier
Form: 575
5.5 ·market 18%
17%
18%
5.5
 -4%
2
MERRIJIG
J: Gina Mangan · T: John Berry
Form: 32364 · D
5.0 ·market 20%
17%
20%
5.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -14%
3
ALS RIVER
J: Jack Mitchell · T: James Horton
Form: 48353
5.0 ·market 20%
12%
20%
5.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -40%
4
INDIVIDUALISTE
J: Rose Dawes(3) · T: Ben Lund
Form: 98472
10.0 ·market 10%
12%
10%
10.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +17%
5
CALSHOT SPIT
J: Charles Bishop · T: Sheena West
Form: 1P439 · CD
6.0 ·market 17%
9%
17%
6.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -44%
6
BUCK BARROW
J: George Wood · T: Adrian Wintle
Form: 33538
7.5 ·market 13%
7%
13%
7.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -47%
7
FOREST HILLS
J: Oliver Carmichael(7) · T: Carroll Gray
Form: 70765
41.0 ·market 2%
6%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +135%
8
CHERRY COLA
J: Tyler Heard · T: Sheena West
Form: 65864 · C
13.0 ·market 8%
5%
8%
13.0
 -40%
9
STAR OF JUPITER
J: Paddy Bradley · T: Mark Loughnane
Form: 64254
8.0 ·market 12%
4%
12%
8.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -66%
10
NATURE
J: Laura Coughlan(3) · T: Miss Celine De La Haye
Form: 8
41.0 ·market 2%
4%
2%
41.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +73%
11
CHILLHI
J: David Probert · T: Barry Murphy
Form: 9P7P7
51.0 ·market 2%
3%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +73%
12
SMITH
J: Robert Havlin · T: Lydia Richards
Form: 5PP97
34.0 ·market 3%
3%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +3%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org