Thurles 13:16: Value Analysis

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden

Thursday 8 October 2026

Maiden GD 8.5f Class 0 10 runners
Our highest-rated SILVER KISS Our price 15/8 · Available 10/11 We make it 35% · the market says 52%
No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.
Why the model rates SILVER KISS top (35% chance)

Solid claims across the board — a strong record against this class, a good effort two runs back and higher-grade experience. Ran 23 days ago in similar company, though the lowly official mark is a quibble in a largely unraced field.

  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Ran well two runs back
  • ✓ Has been racing at a higher level than this lately
  • ✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
  • ✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
SILVER KISS ★ Top Rated
J: Chris Hayes · T: D K Weld
Form: 3332
1.9 ·market 52%
35%
52%
1.9
 -33%
2
CHATTERING CLASSES
J: Seamie Heffernan · T: Mrs J. Harrington
Form: 4
2.9 ·market 35%
17%
35%
2.9
▼ Edge decreasing
 -52%
3
OPHELIA
J: Ben Coen · T: Aidan O'Brien
Form: 0
10.0 ·market 10%
11%
10%
10.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +10%
4
BEACH
J: Jack Cleary(5) · T: Aidan O'Brien
Form: 89
34.0 ·market 3%
8%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +172%
5
ABIDING
J: Gavin Ryan · T: Donnacha Aidan O'Brien
13.0 ·market 8%
6%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -16%
6
KATHY M
J: Declan McDonogh · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
15.0 ·market 7%
6%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -12%
7
LIGHT OF SAXONY
J: J M Sheridan · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
13.0 ·market 8%
5%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -32%
8
LORI DARLIN
J: Adam Caffrey · T: Noel Meade
51.0 ·market 2%
4%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +116%
9
SUSPECT ONE
J: Wesley Joyce · T: Eoin Doyle
151.0 ·market 1%
4%
1%
151.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +478%market disagrees
10
EAGLES VOICE
J: Nathan Crosse · T: John S O'Donoghue
Form: 0
67.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
67.0
 +130%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org