Newmarket 13:15: Value Analysis

Newmarket Academy Godolphin Beacon Project Cornwallis Stakes (Group 3)

Friday 9 October 2026

Group 3 GTF 5.0f Class 1 13 runners
Our highest-rated FLANN SUNNA Our price 7/2 · Available 5/2 We make it 21% · the market says 29%
No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.
Why the model rates FLANN SUNNA top (21% chance)

Highest-rated here and a winner at this class, with two wins in his last four and a third 28 days ago, and William Buick is at 26% in the last two months. Good to firm is the query.

  • ✓ William Buick riding well, 26% strike rate in the last two months
  • ✓ Highest official rating in the race
  • ✕ The good to firm is a question mark for it
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
FLANN SUNNA ★ Top Rated
J: William Buick · T: Simon & Ed Crisford
Form: 1153
3.4 ·market 29%
21%
29%
3.4
▼ Edge decreasing
 -27%
2
IN THE BLACK
J: P. J. McDonald · T: Geoff Oldroyd
Form: 185 · D
5.0 ·market 20%
15%
20%
5.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -25%
3
FAST TRACK
J: Oisin Murphy · T: Andrew Balding
Form: 01224 · D
8.5 ·market 12%
11%
12%
8.5
 -3%
4
MUSSAB
J: Oisin Orr · T: Richard & Peter Fahey
Form: 33611 · D
9.0 ·market 11%
11%
11%
9.0
 -3%
5
ARMOR SUPREME
J: Rossa Ryan · T: Diego Dias
Form: 1291 · D
13.0 ·market 8%
9%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +11%
6
MARCO POLO
J: Ryan Moore · T: Aidan O'Brien
Form: 2816
10.0 ·market 10%
6%
10%
10.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -36%
7
PERFECT STRIKE
J: Cieren Fallon · T: William Haggas
Form: 751 · D
17.0 ·market 6%
6%
6%
17.0
 -1%
8
MINSTER MAN
J: Marco Ghiani · T: Robert Cowell
Form: 211 · D
15.0 ·market 7%
5%
7%
15.0
 -32%
9
NEVER ENOUGH
J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Ed Walker
Form: 219
41.0 ·market 2%
4%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +84%
10
THIS MOMENT
J: Grace McEntee · T: George Boughey
Form: 24111 · D
26.0 ·market 4%
3%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -9%
11
ROGUE JEWEL
J: Colin Keane · T: Edward Bethell
Form: 112
17.0 ·market 6%
3%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -42%
12
BINT ARCHANGE
J: David Egan · T: Richard Hughes
Form: 10190 · D
81.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
81.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +117%
13
CARRY THE FLAG
J: Declan McDonogh · T: Aidan O'Brien
Form: 17400 · D
23.0 ·market 4%
2%
4%
23.0
 -48%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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