Chepstow 13:22: Value Analysis

Wasdell Group Novices' Hurdle Race (Div I) (GBB Race)

Friday 9 October 2026

Novice Hurdle GTS 16.0f Class 4 10 runners
Our highest-rated COOLTOBECARELESS Our price 3/1 · Available evens We make it 25% · the market says 50%
No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.
Why the model rates COOLTOBECARELESS top (25% chance)

Eases in grade with the Skeltons in top form — the yard at 24% and Harry at 27% in the last two months — and he holds a strong record against this class. The 181-day absence is the one worry.

  • ✓ Dan Skelton's yard in form, 24% winners in the last two months
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Harry Skelton riding well, 27% strike rate in the last two months
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much
  • ✕ First run for 181 days, so fitness is a question

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
COOLTOBECARELESS ★ Top Rated
J: Harry Skelton · T: Dan Skelton
Form: 210 · D
2.0 ·market 50%
25%
50%
2.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -50%
2
KINGS SCHOLAR
J: Tom Hutsby(10) · T: Olly Murphy
Form: 44112 · D
3.2 ·market 31%
25%
31%
3.2
 -19%
3
LADY BAM
J: Jack Andrews · T: Tom Ellis
Form: 3
11.0 ·market 9%
10%
9%
11.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +11%
4
KIND INTENTION
J: Ben Poste · T: Tom Symonds
Form: 1 · D
11.0 ·market 9%
9%
9%
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +1%
5
GOLIATH FLIGHT
J: Charlie Todd · T: Dan Skelton
Form: 5
21.0 ·market 5%
7%
5%
21.0
 +52%
6
HERBIES SOCK
J: Stan Sheppard · T: Tom Lacey
7.0 ·market 14%
6%
14%
7.0
 -59%
7
POETS PEARL
J: Paul O'Brien · T: Harry Derham
Form: 5
51.0 ·market 2%
6%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +197%
8
NO HARD FEELINGS
J: Gavin Sheehan · T: Matt Sheppard
Form: 870
51.0 ·market 2%
5%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +147%
9
JUBILEE JACK
J: Tabitha Worsley · T: Harriet Dickin
Form: 006
201.0 ·market 0%
4%
0%
201.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +621%market disagrees
10
TELETIME
J: Richie McLernon · T: Neil Mulholland
Form: 600
201.0 ·market 0%
3%
0%
201.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +564%market disagrees

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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