York 13:30: Value Analysis

William Hill Gold Weekend Autumn Mile Handicap Stakes

Friday 9 October 2026

Other Handicap GD 8.0f Class 3 17 runners
Our highest-rated BEAGLE BAY Our price 4/1 · Available 11/8 We make it 19% · the market says 42%
★ Best value POWER FIZZ Our price 5/1 · Available 11/1 We make it 17% · the market says 8% · +99%
Why the model rates BEAGLE BAY top (19% chance)
  • ✓ Well treated on official ratings
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Ran well two runs back
  • ✕ First run for 118 days, so fitness is a question
  • ✕ Carries plenty of weight today

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
BEAGLE BAY ★ Top Rated
J: Hector Crouch · T: Ralph Beckett
Form: 1411 · D
2.4 ·market 42%
19%
42%
2.4
▼ Edge decreasing
 -54%
2
POWER FIZZ
J: Tom Marquand · T: William Haggas
Form: 1001 · C
12.0 ·market 8%
17%
8%
12.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +99%
3
SPOKEN TRUTH
J: Daniel Tudhope · T: David O'Meara
Form: 64313 · D
8.0 ·market 12%
11%
12%
8.0
 -15%
4
INSPIRED
J: Clifford Lee · T: K. R. Burke
Form: 12110 · CD
11.0 ·market 9%
8%
9%
11.0
 -9%
5
OZAT
J: Silvestre De Sousa · T: Ian Williams
Form: 80037 · D
12.0 ·market 8%
7%
8%
12.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -20%
6
NIKOVO
J: Jason Hart · T: Michael Herrington
Form: 43315 · D
29.0 ·market 3%
6%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +86%
7
POINT OF CONTACT
J: Callum Hutchinson · T: Andrew Balding
Form: 18457 · CD
11.0 ·market 9%
5%
9%
11.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -41%
,
EMPIRE OF LIGHT NR
J: Oliver Stammers · T: Grant Tuer
Form: 11002 · D
— ·market —
—
—
—
 — Withdrawn
8
SALAM DUBAWI
J: Lauren Young(5) · T: Jim Goldie
Form: 40060
9.0 ·market 11%
4%
11%
9.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -66%
9
HENLEIN
J: Kevin Stott · T: Kevin Ryan
Form: 00802
13.0 ·market 8%
4%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -52%
10
GLENFINNAN
J: Connor Beasley · T: Michael Dods
Form: 20185 · D
67.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +107%
11
KHAFIZ
J: Jason Watson · T: Roger Fell
Form: 04407
51.0 ·market 2%
3%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +42%
12
MIRSKY
J: Mark Winn · T: David O'Meara
Form: 99920 · D
26.0 ·market 4%
3%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -28%
13
FINAL NIGHT
J: M. P. Sheehy · T: John Butler
Form: 60224 · D
29.0 ·market 3%
3%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -25%
14
MR SWIVELL
J: Jack Mitchell · T: Kevin Philippart de Foy
Form: 42878 · D
15.0 ·market 7%
2%
7%
15.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -66%
15
NORTHERN EXPRESS
J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Michael Dods
Form: 51359 · CD
15.0 ·market 7%
2%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -70%
16
MILITARY LEADER
J: Sam James · T: Phillip Makin
Form: 22120 · D
41.0 ·market 2%
2%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -20%
17
NIZAM
J: Cam Hardie · T: Ian Williams
Form: 70000 · D
29.0 ·market 3%
2%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -46%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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