Chepstow 13:35: Value Analysis

Dragonbet Best Odds Guaranteed Juvenile Hurdle Race (gbb Race)

Saturday 10 October 2026

Other Hurdle GTS 16.0f Class 4 11 runners
Our highest-rated★ Best value CONFUSED Our price 10/3 · Available 6/1 We make it 23% · the market says 14% · +62%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: SACRE CHEF is the market favourite (2.8) but the model rates it only 5% vs the market's 36%. It may be beatable.

Why the model rates CONFUSED top (23% chance)

Plenty to like: a strong record against this class, a sound effort three runs back, and Harry Cobden partners Faye Bramley at 32%. Fitness after 75 days is the query, and he is still unexposed with something to prove.

  • ✓ Ran well three runs back
  • ✓ Harry Cobden and Faye Bramley win 32% together
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✕ First run for 75 days, so fitness is a question
  • ✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
CONFUSED ★ Top Rated
J: Harry Cobden · T: Faye Bramley
Form: 4140
7.0 ·market 14%
23%
14%
7.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +62%
2
PASS THE BUCK
J: Paul O'Brien · T: Harry Derham
Form: 83413
8.5 ·market 12%
19%
12%
8.5
 +57%
3
TOKYO TOWER
J: Jack Tudor · T: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero
Form: 61
3.0 ·market 33%
16%
33%
3.0
 -51%
4
HOUNDSWOOD WILLOW
J: David Bass · T: Tom Dascombe
Form: 75032
12.0 ·market 8%
12%
8%
12.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +42%
5
SOLAR JET
J: Liam Harrison · T: Dan Skelton
Form: 00
126.0 ·market 1%
6%
1%
126.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +691%market disagrees
6
SACRE CHEF
J: Harry Skelton · T: Dan Skelton
2.8 ·market 36%
5%
36%
2.8
 -85%
7
WHISTLING DAVE
J: Charlie Todd · T: Dan Skelton
26.0 ·market 4%
5%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +22%
8
DUNDEELIN
J: Calum Hogan(5) · T: Harry Derham
29.0 ·market 3%
4%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +21%
9
ROLY MO
J: Ciaran Gethings · T: Mrs Jane Williams
12.0 ·market 8%
4%
8%
12.0
 -57%
10
VALPOVO
J: Kielan Woods · T: Ian Williams
Form: 98
41.0 ·market 2%
3%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +25%
11
TWO STEPPIN
J: Callum Pritchard · T: Barry Murphy
Form: P
151.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
151.0
 +353%market disagrees

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org