Chepstow 13:27: Value Analysis

Dragonbet / Ebf Mares' 'national Hunt' Novices' Hurdle Race (Ebf Mares' Nh Novices' Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Sunday 11 October 2026

Novice Hurdle GTS 19.5f Class 3 7 runners
Our highest-rated★ Best value KAMILLE AU KANADA Our price 2/1 · Available 5/1 We make it 34% · the market says 17% · +104%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: PRINCESS DAY is the market favourite (1.9) but the model rates it only 19% vs the market's 52%. It may be beatable.

Why the model rates KAMILLE AU KANADA top (34% chance)

Kamille Au Kanada is preferred to Princess Day on class-proven form, having won at this level, run well over the last three starts, with Sam Twiston-Davies and Anthony Honeyball combining at 25%; the 138-day absence is the only query.

  • ✓ Preferred to Princess Day, better proven at this class
  • ✓ Sam Twiston-Davies riding well, 25% strike rate in the fortnight
  • ✓ Sam Twiston-Davies and Anthony Honeyball win 25% together
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much
  • ✕ First run for 138 days, so fitness is a question

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
KAMILLE AU KANADA ★ Top Rated
J: Sam Twiston-Davies · T: Anthony Honeyball
Form: 421
6.0 ·market 17%
34%
17%
6.0
 +104%
2
PRINCESS DAY
J: Lorcan Williams · T: Jeremy Scott
Form: 110 · C
1.9 ·market 52%
19%
52%
1.9
 -64%
3
DIVINE DIVA
J: Harry Skelton · T: Dan Skelton
Form: 30
4.5 ·market 22%
14%
22%
4.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -39%
4
CONNELLS CROSS
J: Ciaran Gethings · T: Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls
Form: 11
11.0 ·market 9%
10%
9%
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +6%
5
BATH TAVERNESS
J: Robert Dunne · T: David Evans
Form: 051U
67.0 ·market 1%
9%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +514%market disagrees
6
MIDNIGHT DOYEN
J: Rex Dingle · T: Jeremy Scott
Form: 5354
19.0 ·market 5%
8%
5%
19.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +53%
7
WALKINTHEMOURNES
J: Brendan Powell · T: Joe Tizzard
11.0 ·market 9%
7%
9%
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -26%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org