Naas 13:20: Value Analysis

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden

Sunday 11 October 2026

Maiden SFT 6.0f Class 0 13 runners

Our highest-rated FILM SET Our price 7/2 · Available 2/1 We make it 22% · the market says 33%

No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.

Why the model rates FILM SET top (22% chance)

Film Set ran 14 days ago against a much stronger 88-rated field and eases in grade here; three solid runs, a strong record against this class and Ryan Moore's 17% in the fortnight tick most boxes.

✓ Ryan Moore riding well, 17% strike rate in the fortnight
✓ Ran well over its last three runs
✓ Strong record against this class of rival
✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	FILM SET ★ Top Rated J: Ryan Moore · T: Aidan O'Brien Form: 525 3.0 ·market 33%	22%	33%	3.0	-33%
2	KATTY J: Shane Foley · T: Adrian Sexton Form: 883 4.5 ·market 22%	20%	22%	4.5	-11%
3	FORMOUS J: J M Sheridan · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien Form: 5 5.0 ·market 20%	12%	20%	5.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-38%
4	FLY SMARTLY J: Donagh O'Connor · T: Robson De Aguiar Form: 356 15.0 ·market 7%	11%	7%	15.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+69%
5	ITA FLORENCE J: Seamie Heffernan · T: J S Bolger Form: 6 4.5 ·market 22%	7%	22%	4.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-70%
6	BE IN LOVE J: W. M. Lordan · T: Aidan O'Brien Form: 50 15.0 ·market 7%	7%	7%	15.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-0%
7	CAMHAOIR J: Luke McAteer · T: Mark Michael McNiff 101.0 ·market 1%	4%	1%	101.0	+322%market disagrees
8	CELINE DEE J: James Ryan · T: Jack W Davison 34.0 ·market 3%	4%	3%	34.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+28%
9	CHICAGO BLUES J: Ben Coen · T: J. P. Murtagh 12.0 ·market 8%	3%	8%	12.0	-58%
10	IMAGINE GLORY J: Gavin Ryan · T: Kieran P Cotter 81.0 ·market 1%	3%	1%	81.0	+137%
11	SENUNA J: W. J. Lee · T: Joseph G Murphy 29.0 ·market 3%	3%	3%	29.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-21%
12	ZELENTE J: Siobhan Rutledge · T: Ross O'Sullivan Form: 00 201.0 ·market 0%	2%	0%	201.0	+285%
13	OUTSIDE SUN J: Wesley Joyce · T: K Smith Form: 00 201.0 ·market 0%	2%	0%	201.0	+278%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org