Roscommon 13:30: Value Analysis

Roscommon Racecourse (C & G) Maiden

Monday 12 October 2026

Maiden SFT 7.5f Class 0 11 runners
Our highest-rated★ Best value KARRYGRANT Our price 9/4 · Available 3/1 We make it 30% · the market says 25% · +21%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: STATE OF WYOMING is the market favourite (2.5) but the model rates it only 11% vs the market's 40%. It may be beatable.

Why the model rates KARRYGRANT top (30% chance)

Ticks most boxes: a good effort three runs back, a strong record against this class, and race-fit having run 7 days ago, with Ben Coen at 15% in the fortnight. Asked to step up a touch.

  • ✓ Ran well three runs back
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Ben Coen riding well, 15% strike rate in the fortnight
  • ✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
KARRYGRANT ★ Top Rated
J: Ben Coen · T: J. P. Murtagh
Form: 32322
4.0 ·market 25%
30%
25%
4.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +21%
2
RESURGENCE
J: Shane Foley · T: Mrs J. Harrington
Form: 2426
3.8 ·market 27%
17%
27%
3.8
▼ Edge decreasing
 -37%
3
A GOOD YARN
J: W. M. Lordan · T: Aidan Anthony Howard
Form: 63
5.0 ·market 20%
12%
20%
5.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -39%
4
STATE OF WYOMING
J: W. J. Lee · T: P. Twomey
Form: 06
2.5 ·market 40%
11%
40%
2.5
 -73%
5
AIRBORNE RANGER
J: Nathan Crosse · T: David Marnane
Form: 0
41.0 ·market 2%
7%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +198%
6
HASSANIYA
J: Colin Keane · T: M D O'Callaghan
Form: 33020
10.0 ·market 10%
7%
10%
10.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -35%
7
SPIDER STAR
J: Adam Browne-Souza(7) · T: David Harry Kelly
Form: 05
67.0 ·market 1%
5%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +240%
8
CAPTION THIS
J: Robbie Colgan · T: J A Nash
Form: 009
151.0 ·market 1%
4%
1%
151.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +429%market disagrees
9
CALIFORNIA MAX
J: Rory Mulligan(5) · T: Fergal Birrane
67.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
67.0
 +87%
10
MR MERCURY
J: Leigh Roche · T: J A Nash
Form: 008
151.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
151.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +276%
11
HOWYA PAL
J: Seamie Heffernan · T: John Andrew Kinsella
Form: 0
151.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
151.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +242%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org