Worcester 13:37: Value Analysis

Richard Davis Memorial Handicap Steeple Chase

Monday 12 October 2026

Handicap Chase GD 20.0f Class 5 9 runners
Our highest-rated ONEHUNDREDNEIGHTY Our price 11/4 · Available 11/10 We make it 27% · the market says 48%
★ Best value ROCKVALE Our price 9/2 · Available 5/1 We make it 18% · the market says 17% · +9%
Why the model rates ONEHUNDREDNEIGHTY top (27% chance)

Won when running 17 days ago, went well two runs back and is handily treated on official marks, with Ben Jones and Ben Pauling 26% together and today's trip and going already proven. The good is the only query.

  • ✓ Ran well two runs back
  • ✓ Ben Jones and Ben Pauling win 26% together
  • ✓ Well treated on official ratings
  • ✕ The good is a question mark for it
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
ONEHUNDREDNEIGHTY ★ Top Rated
J: Ben Jones · T: Ben Pauling
Form: 35421 · C
2.1 ·market 48%
27%
48%
2.1
▲ Edge increasing
 -44%
2
ROCKVALE
J: Brendan Powell · T: Sam Allwood
Form: P4U31 · D
6.0 ·market 17%
18%
17%
6.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +9%
3
BLACK OCC
J: Sean Houlihan · T: Sheila Lewis
Form: 32P32
19.0 ·market 5%
11%
5%
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +103%
4
TOM TAGGLE
J: Adam Wedge · T: Mrs C. Williams
Form: F374
7.0 ·market 14%
10%
14%
7.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -30%
,
LOVE ME NR
J: Gavin Sheehan · T: Jo Davis
Form: 43P53
— ·market —
—
—
—
 — Withdrawn
5
JIMMYJEROO
J: Paul O'Brien · T: Henrietta C Knight
Form: 4342
12.0 ·market 8%
9%
8%
12.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +10%
6
DISCO DAVIS
J: James Best · T: Sarah-Jayne Davies
Form: 3P65P
34.0 ·market 3%
7%
3%
34.0
 +134%
7
NOBLE RECALL
J: Isabelle Ryder(5) · T: Anthony Day
Form: 54P13 · CD
7.5 ·market 13%
7%
13%
7.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -51%
8
CALLI BLACK
J: David Bass · T: David Weston
Form: 55778 · CD
29.0 ·market 3%
6%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +81%
9
POPS FOLLY
J: Lorcan Williams · T: Georgina Nicholls
Form: 7563P
17.0 ·market 6%
6%
6%
17.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -1%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org