Hereford 13:45: Value Analysis

Betting.Bet Free Racing Tips Mares' 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)

Tuesday 13 October 2026

Maiden GTF 16.0f Class 4 5 runners

🏁 Result: Blue Topaz won (SP 3.0)

Our highest-rated MISS DENVER Our price 6/4 · Available 1/2 We make it 41% · the market says 67%

No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.

Why the model rates MISS DENVER top (41% chance)

Second when she ran 36 days ago, and she has the trip and good to firm ground in her favour, with Sam Twiston-Davies at 23% in the last two months; only patchy consistency and a modest mark against.

✓ Preferred to Blue Topaz, better suited by the trip
✓ Sam Twiston-Davies riding well, 23% strike rate in the last two months
✓ Ran well last time, finished 2nd
✕ Consistency has been a worry
✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	MISS DENVER ★ Top Rated J: Sam Twiston-Davies · T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies Form: 32222 1.5 ·market 67%	41%	67%	1.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-39%	2nd
2	BLUE TOPAZ J: Jack Hogan · T: Fergal O'Brien Form: 41P73 3.0 ·market 33%	29%	33%	3.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-12%	Winner
3	ESTHER SPRING J: Adam Wedge · T: Christian Williams Form: 86735 15.0 ·market 7%	15%	7%	15.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+124%	3rd
4	VAJRA J: Joe Anderson(3) · T: Grace Harris 21.0 ·market 5%	9%	5%	21.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+90%	5th
5	UPTON FERN J: Shane Fenelon(5) · T: Debra Hamer Form: 50 81.0 ·market 1%	6%	1%	81.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+379%market disagrees	4th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org