Punchestown 13:35: Value Analysis

William Hill Challenge Series 3-Y-O Hurdle

Tuesday 13 October 2026

Other Hurdle GD 16.0f Class 0 9 runners
🏁 Result: Sea Of Dubka won (SP 3.0)
Our highest-rated DANNY POWER Our price 9/4 · Available 11/10 We make it 30% · the market says 48%
★ Best value BELL EX TOO Our price 5/1 · Available 6/1 We make it 17% · the market says 14% · +20%
Why the model rates DANNY POWER top (30% chance)

Won when last seen 23 days ago and John Queally's yard is firing at 17% in the last two months; an improver with scope and a strong record at this level, with only the trip to prove.

  • ✓ John Queally's yard in form, 17% winners in the last two months
  • ✓ Record at this level stands out
  • ✓ Young improver with scope
  • ✕ Trip is a question mark
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
DANNY POWER ★ Top Rated
J: Mark Walsh · T: John Queally
Form: 1 · D
2.1 ·market 48%
30%
48%
2.1
▲ Edge increasing
 -37% 2nd
2
BELL EX TOO
J: Paddy Cody(7) · T: R P Cody
Form: 57691
7.0 ·market 14%
17%
14%
7.0
 +20% 5th
3
SEA OF DUBKA
J: Darragh O'Keeffe · T: Henry de Bromhead
Form: 34511
3.1 ·market 32%
15%
32%
3.1
▼ Edge decreasing
 -54% Winner
4
KENOUGH
J: J J Slevin · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
Form: 54
5.0 ·market 20%
13%
20%
5.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -33% 3rd
5
DUNMORE
J: Danny Mullins · T: Anthony Mullins
Form: 87
126.0 ·market 1%
7%
1%
126.0
 +839%market disagrees 6th
6
JULIES MOON
J: John Shinnick · T: Ms Margaret Mullins
Form: 65
201.0 ·market 0%
5%
0%
201.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +944%market disagrees 8th
7
CONTADOR
J: Jack Kennedy · T: Gordon Elliott
15.0 ·market 7%
5%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -29% 7th
8
PALACE TYNE
J: Peter Smithers(5) · T: Padraig Roche
Form: 09300
251.0 ·market 0%
4%
0%
251.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +873%market disagrees ,
9
MAHZUZ
J: Aidan Kelly · T: Padraig Roche
Form: 0
151.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
151.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +412%market disagrees 4th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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