Leicester 13:24: Value Analysis

Every Race Live On Racing TV Nursery Handicap Stakes

Tuesday 13 October 2026

Nursery GTS 8.0f Class 6 10 runners
🏁 Result: King Of Persia won (SP 7.0)
Our highest-rated★ Best value KING OF PERSIA Our price 5/2 · Available 11/2 We make it 28% · the market says 15% · +79%
Why the model rates KING OF PERSIA top (28% chance)

Won when last seen 20 days ago over this trip and going, and David Allan's 13% strike rate in the last two months helps; ticks most boxes, though he steps into stronger company and consistency has wobbled.

  • ✓ Preferred to Adoramus, a proven winner at this class
  • ✓ David Allan riding well, 13% strike rate in the last two months
  • ✓ Best suited to the 1m in the race
  • ✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
KING OF PERSIA ★ Top Rated
J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby
Form: 77681 · D
6.5 ·market 15%
28%
15%
6.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +79% Winner
2
ADORAMUS
J: George Wood · T: Jack Morland
Form: 356
9.0 ·market 11%
14%
11%
9.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +27% 7th
3
WAITING FOR ARCHIE
J: Barry McHugh · T: Richard & Peter Fahey
Form: 77801
7.5 ·market 13%
13%
13%
7.5
 -6% 5th
4
MR MONTGOMERY
J: Stevie Donohoe · T: Ollie Sangster
Form: 960
12.0 ·market 8%
11%
8%
12.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +32% 8th
5
EBTS WARRIOR
J: Lewis Edmunds · T: William Muir & Chris Grassick
Form: 354
9.5 ·market 11%
10%
11%
9.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -5% 6th
6
MULVANEYS RETURN
J: David Egan · T: Brian Meehan
Form: 630
6.0 ·market 17%
6%
17%
6.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -63% 9th
7
NOTIMETOTAKEOFF
J: Rossa Ryan · T: Charlie Johnston
Form: 035
7.0 ·market 14%
6%
14%
7.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -57% 3rd
8
GOLDEN OASIS
J: Joe Leavy · T: Robert Edwards
Form: 51U83
7.5 ·market 13%
4%
13%
7.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -67% 4th
9
RULE OF THE AGENCY
J: Duran Fentiman · T: Tim Easterby
Form: 7397
81.0 ·market 1%
4%
1%
81.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +229% 10th
10
BANGED UP
J: Charles Bishop · T: Eve Johnson Houghton
Form: 0684
7.5 ·market 13%
4%
13%
7.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -71% 2nd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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