Perth 13:25: Value Analysis

Download The Free Racing TV App Now Beginners' Steeple Chase (GBB Race)

Thursday 15 October 2026

Other Chase GTS 16.0f Class 3 4 runners
Our highest-rated KABRAL DU MATHAN Our price 5/4 · Available 1/5 We make it 44% · the market says 80%
★ Best value HOLD THE SERVE Our price 10/3 · Available 4/1 We make it 23% · the market says 20% · +15%
Why the model rates KABRAL DU MATHAN top (44% chance)

Strongest case here: 26lb better in with Hold The Serve, a winner two and three starts back, proven over trip and going, and the Skeltons strike at 30%; a 217-day absence and the step up in task are the quibbles.

  • ✓ Preferred to Hold The Serve, 26lb better in at the weights
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Has been racing at a higher level than this lately
  • ✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
KABRAL DU MATHAN ★ Top Rated
J: Harry Skelton · T: Dan Skelton
Form: 114 · D
1.2 ·market 80%
44%
80%
1.2
 -45%
2
HOLD THE SERVE
J: Sean Bowen · T: Olly Murphy
Form: 01115
5.0 ·market 20%
23%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +15%
3
DREAM SHADOW
J: Jack Hogan · T: Fergal O'Brien
Form: 11421 · D
13.0 ·market 8%
21%
8%
13.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +168%
4
JABBAR
J: Brian Hughes · T: G. O'Leary
Form: 02270 · D
23.0 ·market 4%
13%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +188%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org