Curragh 13:02: Value Analysis

Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden

Thursday 15 October 2026

Maiden YLD 6.0f Class 0 12 runners
Our highest-rated CHAMPION BASMA Our price 11/4 · Available 7/4 We make it 26% · the market says 36%
★ Best value TAVERNISE Our price 11/2 · Available 10/1 We make it 16% · the market says 9% · +73%
Why the model rates CHAMPION BASMA top (26% chance)

Solid claims all round: she has run well over her last three starts, handles this class, and finds a much weaker race than the one she tackled 19 days ago, despite the yard's 8% in the last two months.

  • ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Has been racing at a higher level than this lately
  • ✕ E J O'Neill's yard quiet lately, 8% in the last two months
  • ✕ Chris Hayes cold lately, 8% in the fortnight

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
CHAMPION BASMA ★ Top Rated
J: Chris Hayes · T: E J O'Neill
Form: 72
2.8 ·market 36%
26%
36%
2.8
 -28%
2
CAPTAIN JAMES COOK
J: W. M. Lordan · T: Aidan O'Brien
Form: 76643
7.0 ·market 14%
20%
14%
7.0
 +39%
3
TAVERNISE
J: Siobhan Rutledge · T: Ross O'Sullivan
Form: 59
11.0 ·market 9%
16%
9%
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +73%
4
KINDACAN
J: Ben Coen · T: J. P. Murtagh
Form: 30
4.3 ·market 23%
12%
23%
4.3
▲ Edge increasing
 -47%
5
ALFREDO DELGADO
J: Colin Keane · T: E McNamara
Form: 8
15.0 ·market 7%
6%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -5%
6
ARIZONA STORM
J: Leigh Roche · T: J A Nash
Form: 0
101.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
101.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +249%
7
BAJAN BAMBI
J: Shane Foley · T: Mrs J. Harrington
9.5 ·market 11%
3%
11%
9.5
 -71%
8
AZTEC CHIEF
J: W. J. Lee · T: John Joseph Murphy
15.0 ·market 7%
3%
7%
15.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -55%
9
JADE FOX
J: Reese Holohan(5) · T: Gavin Cromwell
Form: 0
34.0 ·market 3%
3%
3%
34.0
 -6%
10
JABREEN
J: Andrew Slattery · T: A. Slattery
8.0 ·market 12%
3%
12%
8.0
 -78%
11
MAXIMS OF EQUITY
J: Jamie Powell · T: M D O'Callaghan
Form: 0
51.0 ·market 2%
3%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +32%
12
ROCKFLEET
J: Nathan Crosse · T: Mrs J. Harrington
26.0 ·market 4%
2%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -45%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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