Haydock 13:42: Value Analysis

British Stallion Studs Future Stayers EBF Maiden Stakes (Sire And Dam Restricted Race) (GBB Race)

Friday 16 October 2026

Maiden HVY 8.0f Class 3 6 runners

Our highest-rated ARTHURIAN Our price 8/11 · Available 3/10 We make it 58% · the market says 75%

No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.

Why the model rates ARTHURIAN top (58% chance)

Plenty to like: a strong record against this class, second when it ran 24 days ago, Andrew Balding's yard at 16% in the last two months and Oisin Murphy at 20% over the same period. The heavy is the one query.

✓ Oisin Murphy riding well, 20% strike rate in the last two months
✓ Strong record against this class of rival
✓ Ran well last time, finished 2nd
✕ The heavy is a question mark for it

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	ARTHURIAN ★ Top Rated J: Oisin Murphy · T: Andrew Balding Form: 6232 1.3 ·market 75%	58%	75%	1.3	-23%
2	LA TORRE J: Rossa Ryan · T: Ralph Beckett Form: 3 4.3 ·market 23%	15%	23%	4.3 ▲ Edge increasing	-34%
3	NICAMOO J: Jack Doughty · T: David Loughnane Form: 84 101.0 ·market 1%	8%	1%	101.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+741%market disagrees
4	TOP OF THE WORLD J: Hector Crouch · T: Michael Bell 13.0 ·market 8%	7%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-9%
5	KESARI J: Jack Gilligan · T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt Form: 7 51.0 ·market 2%	6%	2%	51.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+203%
6	FLORES CONCERTO J: Mark Winn · T: David O'Meara 19.0 ·market 5%	6%	5%	19.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+11%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org