Uttoxeter 13:27: Value Analysis

British EBF 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle Race (Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Friday 16 October 2026

Novice Hurdle GD 16.0f Class 4 10 runners

Our highest-rated★ Best value WINGS OF AYRTON Our price 5/2 · Available 10/3 We make it 29% · the market says 23% · +24%

Why the model rates WINGS OF AYRTON top (29% chance)

Respectable claims, with a strong record against this class and a third when it ran 160 days ago; Callum Pritchard's 19% in the fortnight helps, but the trip is unproven and it is yet to be tested against much.

✓ Callum Pritchard riding well, 19% strike rate in the fortnight
✓ Ran well last time, finished 3rd
✓ Strong record against this class of rival
✕ Trip is a question mark
✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
,	TURBOCHARGED NR J: Harry Skelton · T: Dan Skelton Form: 31 · D — ·market —	—	—	—	—	Withdrawn
1	WINGS OF AYRTON ★ Top Rated J: Callum Pritchard · T: Ben Pauling Form: 3 4.3 ·market 23%	29%	23%	4.3 ▼ Edge decreasing	+24%
2	SUPREME GEORGE J: Theo Gillard · T: Donald McCain Form: 32155 · D 5.0 ·market 20%	20%	20%	5.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+2%
3	COOL OCEAN J: Toby Wynne · T: Sam Allwood 41.0 ·market 2%	8%	2%	41.0	+213%
4	ELMSFORD J: Elliott England(7) · T: Ben Pauling 12.0 ·market 8%	8%	8%	12.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-9%
5	EQUI LIBRE J: Tristan Durrell · T: Dan Skelton Form: 03P 34.0 ·market 3%	7%	3%	34.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+150%
6	GIFT FROM DERRICK J: Jonjo O'Neill Jr. · T: Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill 5.0 ·market 20%	6%	20%	5.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-69%
7	SCOPIC J: Richie McLernon · T: Ben Haslam Form: 68P60 81.0 ·market 1%	6%	1%	81.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+406%market disagrees
8	LUNAR TRIX J: Charlie Hammond · T: Stuart Edmunds 3.0 ·market 33%	6%	33%	3.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-82%
9	SHAH J: Jonathan England · T: Sam England Form: 0 8.0 ·market 12%	5%	12%	8.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-60%
10	SHE CAN RUN J: Brendan Powell · T: Sam Allwood Form: 6 101.0 ·market 1%	5%	1%	101.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	+397%market disagrees

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org