Redcar 13:20: Value Analysis

Join Racing TV Now British EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (Div I) (GBB Race)

Friday 16 October 2026

Novice Stakes GD 8.0f Class 4 10 runners
Our highest-rated EXTRAGALACTIC Our price 2/1 · Available 2/5 We make it 32% · the market says 71%
No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.
Why the model rates EXTRAGALACTIC top (32% chance)

Ticks most boxes here, holding a strong record against this class of rival and finishing second when it ran 34 days ago; still an unexposed type with something to prove, and the good is a query.

  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Ran well last time, finished 2nd
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much
  • ✕ The good is a question mark for it

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
EXTRAGALACTIC ★ Top Rated
J: Cieren Fallon · T: William Haggas
Form: 22
1.4 ·market 71%
32%
71%
1.4
 -55%
2
PUSHING THE LIMITS
J: David Probert · T: Stephen Hanlon
Form: 3
3.8 ·market 27%
15%
27%
3.8
 -42%
3
SO FARHH
J: Jake Dickson(5) · T: Tim Easterby
Form: 65
11.0 ·market 9%
11%
9%
11.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +25%
4
SHORIEN
J: Pierre-Louis Jamin · T: Archie Watson
Form: 0
13.0 ·market 8%
11%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +44%
5
GORDONS GIRL
J: M. P. Sheehy · T: David O'Meara
Form: 78
23.0 ·market 4%
8%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +93%
6
BAL HARBOUR
J: George Wood · T: Jack Morland
Form: 9
81.0 ·market 1%
5%
1%
81.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +337%market disagrees
7
MECCAPULCO
J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Michael Dods
Form: 55
67.0 ·market 1%
5%
1%
67.0
 +206%
8
DJ HARRY
J: Joanna Mason · T: Gemma Tutty
23.0 ·market 4%
5%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +5%
9
HIDDEN ARMY
J: Dougie Costello · T: Ollie Pears
Form: 50
81.0 ·market 1%
4%
1%
81.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +192%
10
WELLS FARGOS ENVOY
J: Duran Fentiman · T: Tim Easterby
Form: 86
101.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
101.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +237%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org