Ascot 12:55: Value Analysis

Qatar Racing British Champions Day Two-Year-Old Conditions Stakes (GBB Race)

Saturday 17 October 2026

Conditions Stakes GD 6.0f Class 2 11 runners
Our highest-rated★ Best value INNER CITY BLUES Our price 7/2 · Available 5/1 We make it 23% · the market says 17% · +36%
Why the model rates INNER CITY BLUES top (23% chance)

Ticks most boxes: 4lb better in with Satellite Of Love, proven over this trip and going, and the fifth 21 days ago came in notably stronger company. Appleby's 33% in the last two months seals solid claims.

  • ✓ Preferred to Satellite Of Love, 4lb better in at the weights
  • ✓ Charlie Appleby's yard in form, 33% winners in the last two months
  • ✓ Ran well three runs back
  • ✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race
  • ✕ Unproven at this level

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
INNER CITY BLUES ★ Top Rated
J: William Buick · T: Charlie Appleby
Form: 115 · D
6.0 ·market 17%
23%
17%
6.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +36%
2
SATELLITE OF LOVE
J: Rossa Ryan · T: Clive Cox
Form: 11521 · D
4.5 ·market 22%
13%
22%
4.5
 -41%
3
NIGHT IN VEGAS
J: Charles Bishop · T: Eve Johnson Houghton
Form: 53111 · CD
5.0 ·market 20%
12%
20%
5.0
 -39%
4
CONFUCIUS
J: Ryan Moore · T: Aidan O'Brien
Form: 16337 · D
17.0 ·market 6%
11%
6%
17.0
 +94%
5
SPEED OF SOUND
J: Saffie Osborne · T: Richard Spencer
Form: 21315 · D
13.0 ·market 8%
10%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +34%
6
ARAPAHO GOLD
J: Connor Beasley · T: Michael Dods
Form: 11113 · D
3.8 ·market 27%
9%
27%
3.8
 -66%
7
VICTORY GOLD
J: Oisin Murphy · T: Saeed bin Suroor
Form: 40121
21.0 ·market 5%
6%
5%
21.0
 +32%
8
ADAAY OF SCARLETT
J: James Doyle · T: Hugo Palmer
Form: 22576 · C
34.0 ·market 3%
5%
3%
34.0
 +57%
9
CRUSHERMAN
J: David Egan · T: Brian Meehan
Form: 51 · D
67.0 ·market 1%
4%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +158%
10
OAKFORD
J: Lewis Edmunds · T: Roger Teal
Form: 521 · D
26.0 ·market 4%
3%
4%
26.0
 -10%
11
THEHEATISON
J: Pat Dobbs · T: Nick Scholfield
Form: 32523 · D
201.0 ·market 0%
3%
0%
201.0
 +520%market disagrees

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org