Catterick 13:00: Value Analysis

EBF "Confined" Restricted Maiden Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D With No More Than Three Runs) (GBB Race)

Saturday 17 October 2026

Maiden GTS 7.0f Class 4 8 runners

Our highest-rated QUEENS BANDIT Our price 15/8 · Available 8/13 We make it 35% · the market says 62%

No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.

Why the model rates QUEENS BANDIT top (35% chance)

Solid claims across the board: Hart and Clover combine for 50% winners, he ran 11 days ago so is race-fit, and the effort two runs back marks him down as an unexposed type with something to prove.

✓ Jason Hart riding well, 14% strike rate in the last two months
✓ Jason Hart and Charlie Clover win 50% together
✓ Ran well two runs back
✕ Consistency has been a worry
✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	QUEENS BANDIT ★ Top Rated J: Jason Hart · T: Charlie Clover Form: 32 1.6 ·market 62%	35%	62%	1.6	-44%
2	LORD PERCY J: Edward Greatrex · T: Ed Dunlop Form: 65 4.3 ·market 23%	16%	23%	4.3 ▼ Edge decreasing	-29%
3	LIONS DEN J: Mark Winn · T: Michael Dods Form: 6 5.0 ·market 20%	12%	20%	5.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-39%
4	SHAQRA QUEEN J: Sam James · T: K. R. Burke Form: 645 13.0 ·market 8%	12%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+55%
5	NORTHERN EXPOSURE J: Jack Nicholls(3) · T: Patrick Owens Form: 88 81.0 ·market 1%	8%	1%	81.0	+519%market disagrees
6	SHE IS MIGHTY J: Joanna Mason · T: Steph Hollinshead Form: 7 41.0 ·market 2%	7%	2%	41.0	+194%
7	RED DEMON J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Donald McCain 15.0 ·market 7%	6%	7%	15.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-16%
8	MAGNANIMOUS GRECIA J: David Allan · T: Tracy Waggott Form: 0 81.0 ·market 1%	5%	1%	81.0	+268%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org