Newton Abbot 13:05: Value Analysis

British Stallion Studs Ebf 'national Hunt' Novices' Hurdle Race (Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Saturday 17 October 2026

Novice Hurdle GD 17.0f Class 4 8 runners
Our highest-rated TRIGG Our price 11/8 · Available 8/11 We make it 42% · the market says 60%
No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.
Why the model rates TRIGG top (42% chance)

Preferred to Mecene on the ground, with the Skeltons flying — 25% for the yard and 28% for the jockey in the last two months — and he has won at this level, so 132 days off is the only quibble.

  • ✓ Preferred to Mecene, better on the ground
  • ✓ Dan Skelton's yard in form, 25% winners in the last two months
  • ✓ Harry Skelton riding well, 28% strike rate in the last two months
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much
  • ✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
TRIGG ★ Top Rated
J: Harry Skelton · T: Dan Skelton
Form: 12213
1.7 ·market 60%
42%
60%
1.7
▼ Edge decreasing
 -30%
2
MECENE
J: Ciaran Gethings · T: Mrs Jane Williams
Form: 231 · D
2.0 ·market 50%
20%
50%
2.0
 -60%
3
DANZA KUDURO
J: Robbie David(5) · T: Daisy Hitchins
Form: 4
21.0 ·market 5%
9%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +89%
4
SQUIB
J: Brendan Powell · T: Joe Tizzard
Form: 9
17.0 ·market 6%
8%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +41%
5
HORETHORNE
J: Freddie Gingell · T: Joe Tizzard
Form: 30
29.0 ·market 3%
7%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +97%
6
ITSJUSTTHEWAYIAM
J: Jack Tudor · T: Christian Williams
Form: 6
51.0 ·market 2%
5%
2%
51.0
 +154%
7
SILVER WHISPER
J: David Noonan · T: Ben Clarke
Form: 73259
81.0 ·market 1%
5%
1%
81.0
 +277%
8
JUBILEE JACK
J: Tabitha Worsley · T: Harriet Dickin
Form: 0060
201.0 ·market 0%
5%
0%
201.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +820%market disagrees

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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