Leopardstown 14:12: Value Analysis

Leopardstown Golf, Padel And Range Maiden

Sunday 18 October 2026

Maiden GD 9.0f Class 0 15 runners
Our highest-rated SUNATIA Our price 4/1 · Available 10/11 We make it 19% · the market says 52%
No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.
Why the model rates SUNATIA top (19% chance)

Solid claims across the board: 11lb better in than King Of Sparta, second when it ran 22 days ago, ideally fresh, and 1m1f is bang on its trip. Patchy consistency is the one blot.

  • ✓ Preferred to King Of Sparta, 11lb better in at the weights
  • ✓ Ran well last time, finished 2nd
  • ✓ Ideally fresh, 22 days since its last run
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry
  • ✕ Unproven at this level

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
SUNATIA ★ Top Rated
J: Chris Hayes · T: D K Weld
Form: 0222
1.9 ·market 52%
19%
52%
1.9
▼ Edge decreasing
 -63%
2
KING OF SPARTA
J: W. M. Lordan · T: Aidan O'Brien
Form: 625
5.5 ·market 18%
15%
18%
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -15%
3
WILL YOU STOP
J: Andrew Slattery · T: A. Slattery
Form: 34874
9.0 ·market 11%
14%
11%
9.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +23%
4
VICO ROAD
J: Shane Foley · T: John Joseph Murphy
Form: 540
29.0 ·market 3%
10%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +201%
5
SHAMROCK FLAME
J: Donagh O'Connor · T: Robson De Aguiar
Form: 20
21.0 ·market 5%
7%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +47%
6
MISNEACH SILE
J: Jack Cleary(5) · T: John McConnell
Form: 07
201.0 ·market 0%
5%
0%
201.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +935%market disagrees
7
CHECKERED
J: Ben Coen · T: Mrs Denise Foster
81.0 ·market 1%
5%
1%
81.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +301%market disagrees
8
RHAPSODIC
J: Colin Keane · T: D K Weld
4.0 ·market 25%
4%
25%
4.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -83%
9
SHORTEN THE WINTER
J: Jamie Powell · T: M D O'Callaghan
23.0 ·market 4%
4%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -12%
10
MAN OF PROPERTY
J: Sadhbh Tormey(7) · T: T G McCourt
29.0 ·market 3%
3%
3%
29.0
 -2%
11
MAYBE ART
J: Rory Mulligan(5) · T: Cian Hughes
101.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
101.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +213%
12
WINTER ADVENTURE
J: Adam Caffrey · T: Noel Meade
21.0 ·market 5%
3%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -43%
13
COOL STEEL
J: Seamie Heffernan · T: John Joseph Murphy
67.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +67%
14
GINNOS OASIS
J: J M Sheridan · T: Cian Hughes
Form: 0
126.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
126.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +205%
15
NTHEA SPIRIT
J: Gavin Ryan · T: Tracey Collins
Form: 0
151.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
151.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +182%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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