Sedgefield 13:50: Value Analysis

Michael And Olivia Watson Novices' Hurdle Race (gbb Race)

Sunday 18 October 2026

Novice Hurdle GD 20.0f Class 4 3 runners
Our highest-rated★ Best value EDELAK Our price 2/5 · Available 4/5 We make it 72% · the market says 56% · +30%
Why the model rates EDELAK top (72% chance)

Ticks most boxes: 14lb better in than Tommy Pickles, race-fit having run 8 days ago, and the Skelton pair win 30% together with Harry at 29% in the last two months. Last run disappointed, but strong against this class.

  • ✓ Preferred to Tommy Pickles, 14lb better in at the weights
  • ✓ Harry Skelton riding well, 29% strike rate in the last two months
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✕ Little to like about its run last time

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
EDELAK ★ Top Rated
J: Harry Skelton · T: Dan Skelton
Form: F11P6
1.8 ·market 56%
72%
56%
1.8
 +30%
2
TOMMY PICKLES
J: Gavin Sheehan · T: Jamie Snowden
Form: 3221 · D
1.9 ·market 52%
17%
52%
1.9
 -67%
3
ROCK ARMOUR
J: Joshua Thompson(5) · T: David Thompson
Form: 6053U
29.0 ·market 3%
11%
3%
29.0
 +214%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org