Gowran Park 13:40: Value Analysis

Golf At Gowran Park Nursery Handicap

Monday 19 October 2026

Nursery YTS 7.0f Class 0 12 runners
Our highest-rated LITTLEPACER Our price 4/1 · Available 9/4 We make it 19% · the market says 31%
No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.
Why the model rates LITTLEPACER top (19% chance)

Ticks most boxes at this level — solid against these rivals, ran well two starts back, and she eases in grade after much stronger company. Ran 17 days ago; a 53 mark and the step up in task are the only quibbles.

  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Ran well two runs back
  • ✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown
  • ✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
LITTLEPACER ★ Top Rated
J: Ben Coen · T: J. P. Murtagh
Form: 80035
3.2 ·market 31%
19%
31%
3.2
▲ Edge increasing
 -37%
2
CUDAWUDASHUDA
J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · T: M M Rice
Form: 6742
6.0 ·market 17%
16%
17%
6.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -4%
3
STORMY DAWN
J: W. J. Lee · T: P A Fahy
Form: 0063
5.0 ·market 20%
15%
20%
5.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -27%
4
SILK TWIST
J: Colin Keane · T: Thomas Mullins
5.5 ·market 18%
11%
18%
5.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -40%
5
WINNIES WISH
J: G. F. Carroll · T: Gavin Cromwell
Form: 8086
5.5 ·market 18%
10%
18%
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -46%
6
DROPPING DIMES
J: R. P. Cleary · T: Jarlath P Fahey
Form: 0993
12.0 ·market 8%
8%
8%
12.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -8%
7
RATHBRAN LADY
J: Wesley Joyce · T: Michael Mulvany
Form: 75059
19.0 ·market 5%
6%
5%
19.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +10%
8
DEAR THEODOSIA
J: Nathan Crosse · T: Daniel McLoughlin
Form: 0099
26.0 ·market 4%
4%
4%
26.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +10%
9
OUTSIDE SUN
J: Leigh Roche · T: K Smith
Form: 000
51.0 ·market 2%
4%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +89%
10
HOW NOW
J: James Ryan · T: Conor David Maxwell
Form: 060
67.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +106%
11
MAGNA FORTUNA
J: Paddy Harnett(3) · T: P F McEnery
Form: 0000
41.0 ·market 2%
3%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +8%
12
TINA TERESHKOVA
J: Jamie Powell · T: Andrew Kinirons
Form: 09600
34.0 ·market 3%
2%
3%
34.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -27%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org