Pontefract 13:53: Value Analysis

Happy 80th Birthday William 'bill' Carr Maiden Stakes (gbb Race)

Monday 19 October 2026

Maiden GTS 6.0f Class 4 6 runners

Our highest-rated GREEN STAR Our price 11/10 · Available 11/10 We make it 49% · the market says 48%

No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.

Why the model rates GREEN STAR top (49% chance)

Drops out of an 87-rated field, is 3lb better in than War Gaming and arrives fresh from a run 16 days ago for a yard at 15% in the fortnight; his flop that day and the ground are quibbles.

✓ Preferred to War Gaming, 3lb better in at the weights
✓ Strong record against this class of rival
✓ Ideally fresh, 16 days since its last run
✕ Little to like about its run last time
✕ Ground may not suit

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	GREEN STAR ★ Top Rated J: Cieren Fallon · T: George Boughey Form: 24 2.1 ·market 48%	49%	48%	2.1	+2%
2	WAR GAMING J: Rossa Ryan · T: George Scott Form: 2333 4.3 ·market 23%	16%	23%	4.3 ▲ Edge increasing	-29%
3	HIGH TOWER J: David Probert · T: George Boughey Form: 3 5.0 ·market 20%	13%	20%	5.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-37%
4	PAPHOS J: Zak Wheatley · T: Declan Carroll Form: 533 13.0 ·market 8%	8%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+5%
5	HARMONISING J: David Egan · T: John S O'Donoghue 13.0 ·market 8%	8%	8%	13.0	+0%
6	LONGSHANKS LUKE J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Patrick Neville Form: 844 13.0 ·market 8%	6%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-18%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org