Yarmouth 13:20: Value Analysis

Join Moulton Racing Syndicate Apprentice Handicap Stakes

Tuesday 20 October 2026

Other Handicap SFT 7.0f Class 4 9 runners
Our highest-rated PIETRO Our price 2/1 · Available 15/8 We make it 34% · the market says 35%
No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.
Why the model rates PIETRO top (34% chance)

Preferred to Korbut on trip and ground, and eases in grade after facing a field averaging 93. Well treated, strong against this class, and Fanshawe's yard is 18% in the last two months; this class is new ground.

  • ✓ Preferred to Korbut, better suited by the trip and better on the ground
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Well treated on official ratings
  • ✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
PIETRO ★ Top Rated
J: Taryn Langley(3) · T: James Fanshawe
Form: 13073 · D
2.9 ·market 35%
34%
35%
2.9
 -2%
2
KORBUT
J: Poppy Scott(7) · T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt
Form: 21253 · D
5.0 ·market 20%
17%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -17%
3
GOLDEN PHARAOH
J: Jack Dace · T: Scott Dixon
Form: 08300 · D
9.0 ·market 11%
9%
11%
9.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -15%
4
GORGEOUS MR GEORGE
J: Jake J. Slawson(7) · T: Dylan Cunha
Form: 14086 · CD
10.0 ·market 10%
9%
10%
10.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -11%
5
HAVANA SMILE
J: Toby Moore(5) · T: Gary & Josh Moore
Form: 653U3
7.0 ·market 14%
8%
14%
7.0
 -43%
6
ECCLEFECHAN
J: Christian Howarth · T: John Ryan
Form: 11790 · C
13.0 ·market 8%
7%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -10%
7
MAJESTIC DANE
J: Jack Nicholls · T: K. R. Burke
Form: 1290 · D
29.0 ·market 3%
6%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +77%
8
PASSING THOUGHT
J: Ashley Lewis · T: Ed Walker
Form: 10956 · D
13.0 ·market 8%
5%
8%
13.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -29%
9
NOBLE GUEST
J: Connor Planas · T: George Margarson
Form: 74898 · CD
11.0 ·market 9%
4%
9%
11.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -51%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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