Curragh 13:25: Value Analysis

1xBet.ie Supporting October Racing Irish EBF Maiden

Tuesday 20 October 2026

Maiden YLD 6.0f Class 0 13 runners
Our highest-rated MAJOR TRIUMPH Our price 4/1 · Available 6/4 We make it 20% · the market says 40%
No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.
Why the model rates MAJOR TRIUMPH top (20% chance)

Ticks most boxes here: three sound runs in a row, a strong record against this class of rival, Moore 16% in the last two months and O'Brien 15% in the fortnight. Unexposed, with something still to prove.

  • ✓ Ryan Moore riding well, 16% strike rate in the last two months
  • ✓ Aidan O'Brien's yard in form, 15% winners in the fortnight
  • ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much
  • ✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
MAJOR TRIUMPH ★ Top Rated
J: Ryan Moore · T: Aidan O'Brien
Form: 3
2.5 ·market 40%
20%
40%
2.5
 -51%
2
SHAKE IT OUT
J: Gavin Ryan · T: Kieran P Cotter
Form: 6
6.5 ·market 15%
15%
15%
6.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -3%
3
SONNY HAYES
J: Donagh O'Connor · T: Robson De Aguiar
Form: 4
5.0 ·market 20%
15%
20%
5.0
 -25%
4
NATION BLAZE
J: Andrew Slattery · T: A. Slattery
Form: 9820
6.5 ·market 15%
11%
15%
6.5
 -27%
5
ONE FLASH
J: Shane Foley · T: Adrian Sexton
Form: 82
21.0 ·market 5%
9%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +83%
6
EAGLE ECLIPSE
J: Seamie Heffernan · T: J A Stack
Form: 9
6.0 ·market 17%
6%
17%
6.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -63%
7
PAUL PIERRE
J: Chris Hayes · T: D K Weld
Form: 80
41.0 ·market 2%
5%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +125%
8
ELZANTE
J: Luke McAteer · T: C Byrnes
Form: 9
51.0 ·market 2%
4%
2%
51.0
 +103%
9
REJOINDER
J: Leigh Roche · T: Robson De Aguiar
Form: 94
51.0 ·market 2%
4%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +99%
10
CASTAGLIOLA
J: G. F. Carroll · T: Joseph G Murphy
34.0 ·market 3%
4%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +27%
11
TABASCO RIVER
J: Jack Cleary(5) · T: Aidan O'Brien
15.0 ·market 7%
3%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -52%
12
GRECIAN PEARL
J: Nicola Burns(5) · T: Gerard Keane
Form: 0
101.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
101.0
 +104%
13
SHARF ARDAD
J: Ben Coen · T: E J O'Neill
Form: 0
51.0 ·market 2%
2%
2%
51.0
 +2%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org