Yarmouth 13:50: Value Analysis

British Stallion Studs Ebf Maiden Fillies' Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)

Tuesday 20 October 2026

Maiden SFT 8.0f Class 3 6 runners

Our highest-rated★ Best value USAYLAH Our price 7/4 · Available 3/1 We make it 36% · the market says 25% · +46%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: CLOAK OF POWER is the market favourite (2.4) but the model rates it only 11% vs the market's 42%. It may be beatable.

Why the model rates USAYLAH top (36% chance)

Better suited by the trip than Avebury Ring, she was third when she ran 13 days ago and arrives race-fit, with Murphy 19% in the last two months; open to improvement in a largely unraced field.

✓ Preferred to Avebury Ring, better suited by the trip
✓ Oisin Murphy riding well, 19% strike rate in the last two months
✓ Race-fit, having run 13 days ago
✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	USAYLAH ★ Top Rated J: Oisin Murphy · T: John & Thady Gosden Form: 3 4.0 ·market 25%	36%	25%	4.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+46%
2	AVEBURY RING J: Rossa Ryan · T: Ralph Beckett Form: 3 5.0 ·market 20%	21%	20%	5.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+3%
3	ANTONOVA J: Cieren Fallon · T: William Haggas 8.5 ·market 12%	13%	12%	8.5 ▲ Edge increasing	+11%
4	CLOAK OF POWER J: Billy Loughnane · T: George Boughey 2.4 ·market 42%	11%	42%	2.4	-73%
5	MARYLEBONE J: David Egan · T: Kevin Philippart de Foy 6.0 ·market 17%	10%	17%	6.0	-39%
6	CHERRY AMBER J: Rhys Clutterbuck · T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt Form: 6 201.0 ·market 0%	8%	0%	201.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+1584%market disagrees

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org