Navan 13:02: Value Analysis

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Maiden

Wednesday 21 October 2026

Maiden YLD 6.0f Class 0 14 runners

Our highest-rated MISS MONA KEEBA Our price 4/1 · Available 10/11 We make it 19% · the market says 52%

No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.

Why the model rates MISS MONA KEEBA top (19% chance)

Ticks most boxes: ran 14 days ago and finished second, the freshness suits, and Andrew Slattery and A. Slattery win 20% together. Patchy consistency and a lack of tested form are the only quibbles.

✓ Ran well last time, finished 2nd
✓ Ideally fresh, 14 days since its last run
✓ Andrew Slattery and A. Slattery win 20% together
✕ Consistency has been a worry
✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	MISS MONA KEEBA ★ Top Rated J: Andrew Slattery · T: A. Slattery Form: 2 1.9 ·market 52%	19%	52%	1.9 ▼ Edge decreasing	-64%
2	VILLARAY J: Colin Keane · T: G. M. Lyons Form: 83 3.5 ·market 29%	15%	29%	3.5 ▲ Edge increasing	-46%
3	TEQUILA BELLE J: Leigh Roche · T: A. Slattery Form: 4 8.5 ·market 12%	13%	12%	8.5	+8%
4	DIRECT ACTION J: Jamie Powell · T: Derek McCormack Form: 6 10.0 ·market 10%	12%	10%	10.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+17%
5	PRINCE OF PEPPARD J: Ben Coen · T: J. P. Murtagh Form: 67422 6.0 ·market 17%	9%	17%	6.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-45%
6	BYZANTINE GOLD J: J M Sheridan · T: A. Slattery Form: 9 34.0 ·market 3%	8%	3%	34.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+166%
,	STARLIT NR J: Shane Foley · T: Mrs J. Harrington Form: 605 — ·market —	—	—	—	—	Withdrawn
7	ALWAYS CHANGING J: G. F. Carroll · T: Ross O'Sullivan Form: 0 51.0 ·market 2%	6%	2%	51.0	+226%
8	HAZY SKY J: Reese Holohan(5) · T: K J Condon Form: 70 66.0 ·market 2%	4%	2%	66.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+162%
9	LORI DARLIN J: Siobhan Rutledge · T: Noel Meade Form: 80 126.0 ·market 1%	3%	1%	126.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+313%market disagrees
10	WHATS THIS J: Orla Tynan(7) · T: A. Slattery Form: 70 64.0 ·market 2%	3%	2%	64.0	+71%
11	QUEEN OF THE ANDES J: Chris Hayes · T: Eddie & Patrick Harty 41.5 ·market 2%	3%	2%	41.5 ▲ Edge increasing	+6%
12	SEVENGRANDCHILDREN J: Wesley Joyce · T: Michael Mulvany Form: 0 101.0 ·market 1%	2%	1%	101.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+109%
,	CREATURE OF HABIT NR J: Nathan Crosse · T: Edward Lynam — ·market —	—	—	—	—	Withdrawn
13	CAMHAOIR J: Luke McAteer · T: Mark Michael McNiff Form: 7 126.0 ·market 1%	2%	1%	126.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+129%
14	PROFESSOR FINNEGAN J: Seamie Heffernan · T: J. P. Murtagh Form: 08 101.0 ·market 1%	2%	1%	101.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+60%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org