Navan 13:32: Value Analysis

Christmas Parties At Navan Racecourse 5th & 13th December Handicap

Wednesday 21 October 2026

Other Handicap YLD 6.0f Class 0 21 runners
Our highest-rated ALNOFOOR Our price 13/2 · Available 8/1 We make it 13% · the market says 11%
No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.
Why the model rates ALNOFOOR top (13% chance)

Plenty to like: his record at this level stands out, he won twice in a row four and five starts back, and he eases in grade, though Ms Claire O'Connell's yard is 5% in the last two months.

  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
  • ✓ Record at this level stands out
  • ✕ Ms Claire O'Connell's yard quiet lately, 5% in the last two months
  • ✕ Trip is a question mark

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
ALNOFOOR ★ Top Rated
J: Colin Keane · T: Ms Claire O'Connell
Form: 11380 · CD
9.0 ·market 11%
13%
11%
9.0
 +21%
2
RODEEVE
J: Adam Browne-Souza(7) · T: Michael J Browne
Form: 51003 · D
10.0 ·market 10%
13%
10%
10.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +32%
3
ONE COOL BEAR
J: Patrick McGettigan(5) · T: Adrian McGuinness
Form: 88177
9.8 ·market 10%
10%
10%
9.8
▲ Edge increasing
 -2%
4
EL FONTENARO
J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · T: Jarlath P Fahey
Form: 22155 · D
8.0 ·market 12%
9%
12%
8.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -32%
5
ANOTHER NICEDAY
J: Orla Tynan(7) · T: Miss Jennifer Anne Lynch
Form: 17445 · C
16.8 ·market 6%
7%
6%
16.8
▲ Edge increasing
 +17%
6
MICASSO
J: Ben Coen · T: Donal Kinsella
Form: 00407
12.0 ·market 8%
6%
8%
12.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -23%
7
SAND ART
J: Julian Pietropaolo(7) · T: Kevin Thomas Coleman
Form: 00196 · D
10.5 ·market 10%
6%
10%
10.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -37%
8
CARRIGANS GROVE
J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy(7) · T: Patrick J Flynn
Form: 07034 · D
5.0 ·market 20%
5%
20%
5.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -74%
9
GOLD INN
J: Chris Hayes · T: G A Kingston
Form: 80086
21.0 ·market 5%
4%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -7%
10
WHATSWRONGNOW
J: Seamie Heffernan · T: Batt Burke
Form: 02390
21.0 ·market 5%
4%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -20%
11
ABOVEHERONLYSKY
J: Keithen Kennedy(5) · T: Timothy Doyle
Form: 99000
27.0 ·market 4%
3%
4%
27.0
 -17%
12
COINCIDENTAL GLORY
J: Reese Holohan(5) · T: Adrian McGuinness
Form: 03023
5.0 ·market 20%
3%
20%
5.0
 -86%
13
EMILYS BOY
J: Rory Mulligan(5) · T: Thomas Dowling
Form: 90009
21.0 ·market 5%
3%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -45%
14
FRIENDLY INVOICE
J: Nicola Burns(5) · T: Conor David Maxwell
Form: 14200 · D
41.0 ·market 2%
2%
2%
41.0
 -5%
15
RAVENS CALL
J: W. J. Lee · T: Edward Lynam
Form: 0590
34.0 ·market 3%
2%
3%
34.0
 -28%
16
STEP BACK IN TIME
J: R. P. Cleary · T: Chris Timmons
Form: 03008 · CD
17.0 ·market 6%
2%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -67%
17
PLUSHY
J: Alan Casey(7) · T: Liam Casey
Form: 69900
51.0 ·market 2%
2%
2%
51.0
 -4%
18
UKIYO
J: Robbie Colgan · T: Andrew Kinirons
Form: 03846 · D
17.0 ·market 6%
2%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -71%
19
AMAZING FORCE
J: Siobhan Rutledge · T: Ms Claire O'Connell
Form: 000
67.0 ·market 1%
1%
1%
67.0
 -16%
20
ESCHWEILER
J: J M Sheridan · T: Barry J Fitzgerald
Form: 2800
67.0 ·market 1%
1%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -19%
21
GONIRIANBOTHARLEAT
J: Leigh Roche · T: Miss Jennifer Anne Lynch
Form: 9800
51.0 ·market 2%
1%
2%
51.0
 -44%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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