Carlisle 13:17: Value Analysis
Class Of '63: 63 Years On Novices' Hurdle Race (Go North Night Nurse Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)
Thursday 22 October 2026
⚠ Vulnerable favourite: PUSH THE LIMIT is the market favourite (1.5) but the model rates it only 20% vs the market's 65%. It may be beatable.
Solid claims across the board — a winner at this class or higher, good over its last three runs, with Nicky Richards at 20% and Danny McMenamin 18% in the fortnight. Ground is the doubt, and it ran 185 days ago.
- ✓ Danny McMenamin riding well, 18% strike rate in the fortnight
- ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
- ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
- ✕ Yet to be tested against much
- ✕ Ground may not suit
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
DILRISK
★ Top Rated
7.5
·market 13%
|
23% |
13% |
7.5
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+74% | |
| 2 |
PUSH THE LIMIT
1.5
·market 65%
|
20% |
65% |
1.5
|
-69% | |
| 3 |
JOHNNY MOONSHINE
15.0
·market 7%
|
13% |
7% |
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+99% | |
| 4 |
MOORHEAD
29.0
·market 3%
|
8% |
3% |
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+136% | |
| 5 |
STRIKING MIDNIGHT
23.0
·market 4%
|
7% |
4% |
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+65% | |
| 6 |
AYE OVER TEE
17.0
·market 6%
|
5% |
6% |
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
-20% | |
| 7 |
EAGLE WARRIOR
26.0
·market 4%
|
4% |
4% |
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+14% | |
| 8 |
CINNAMON STORM
81.0
·market 1%
|
4% |
1% |
81.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+243% | |
| 9 |
LECANVEY LADY
81.0
·market 1%
|
4% |
1% |
81.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+202% | |
| 10 |
WATERY BORREN
7.5
·market 13%
|
4% |
13% |
7.5
▲ Edge increasing
|
-73% | |
| 11 |
ARGENTUM
101.0
·market 1%
|
3% |
1% |
101.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+186% | |
| 12 |
FARFROMAWAY
34.0
·market 3%
|
2% |
3% |
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
-15% | |
| 13 |
OLD COMRADES
81.0
·market 1%
|
2% |
1% |
81.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+68% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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