Newmarket 13:10: Value Analysis

CopyBet For Europa League Profit Boosts EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (Div I) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

Thursday 22 October 2026

Novice Stakes SFT 8.0f Class 4 7 runners
Our highest-rated★ Best value BYZANTINE Our price 6/4 · Available 3/1 We make it 39% · the market says 25% · +58%
Why the model rates BYZANTINE top (39% chance)

Solid claims across the board: strong record against this class, better than the bare result when it ran 15 days ago, and Billy Loughnane at 18% in the last two months. Trip is the query in a largely unraced field.

  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Ideally fresh, 15 days since its last run
  • ✓ Billy Loughnane riding well, 18% strike rate in the last two months
  • ✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
BYZANTINE ★ Top Rated
J: Billy Loughnane · T: George Boughey
Form: 14
4.0 ·market 25%
39%
25%
4.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +58%
2
STATE EMPEROR
J: Jack Mitchell · T: Roger Varian
Form: 8
4.0 ·market 25%
16%
25%
4.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -34%
3
SUSURRUS
J: Saffie Osborne · T: Ralph Beckett
8.5 ·market 12%
11%
12%
8.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -5%
,
CRACKSDOWN NR
J: Charles Bishop · T: Ian Williams
— ·market —
—
—
—
 — Withdrawn
4
MR BLING
J: David Probert · T: Hugo Palmer
13.0 ·market 8%
9%
8%
13.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +19%
5
MUNAJAD
J: Ryan Moore · T: Harry Eustace
7.5 ·market 13%
8%
13%
7.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -38%
6
SYDNEY CARTON
J: Robert Havlin · T: James Owen
Form: 30732
3.8 ·market 27%
8%
27%
3.8
▼ Edge decreasing
 -70%
7
OMEGA FERNANDEZ
J: Marco Ghiani · T: Lemos De Souza
21.0 ·market 5%
8%
5%
21.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +58%
,
WISE WARRIOR NR
J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Jim Boyle
Form: 4
— ·market —
—
—
—
 — Withdrawn

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org