Ffos Las 12:51: Value Analysis

bettingsites.co.uk Fast Withdrawal Mares' Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)

Thursday 22 October 2026

Novice Hurdle GTS 20.0f Class 4 8 runners
Our highest-rated FAIRY PARK Our price 7/4 · Available 2/5 We make it 36% · the market says 74%
No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.
Why the model rates FAIRY PARK top (36% chance)

Ticks most boxes: solid over its last three runs, strong record against this class of rival, Joe Tizzard's yard at 15% and Brendan Powell at 19% in the last two months. Ran 196 days ago, yet to be tested.

  • ✓ Brendan Powell riding well, 19% strike rate in the last two months
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
FAIRY PARK ★ Top Rated
J: Brendan Powell · T: Joe Tizzard
Form: 23
1.4 ·market 74%
36%
74%
1.4
▼ Edge decreasing
 -51%
2
VRHELIGONNE
J: Ben Jones · T: Ben Pauling
Form: 22
3.5 ·market 29%
19%
29%
3.5
 -35%
3
FIREBALL FRENZY
J: Charlie Hammond · T: Stuart Edmunds
9.5 ·market 11%
13%
11%
9.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +23%
4
FUNNY HUNNY
J: Tristan Durrell · T: Dan Skelton
Form: 4
10.0 ·market 10%
11%
10%
10.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +9%
5
HANDFULOFPROMISES
J: Sean Houlihan · T: Sheila Lewis
67.0 ·market 1%
8%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +457%market disagrees
6
CRESCENDO LADY
J: Kevin Brogan · T: Laura Horsfall
Form: 5
113.5 ·market 1%
5%
1%
113.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +462%market disagrees
7
LARA K
J: Conor Ring · T: Mrs C. Williams
Form: 767
126.0 ·market 1%
4%
1%
126.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +445%market disagrees
8
UPTON FERN
J: Robert Dunne · T: Debra Hamer
Form: 504
105.5 ·market 1%
4%
1%
105.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +354%market disagrees

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org