Sligo 13:25: Value Analysis

Abbey Haven Care Centre & Nursing Home Hurdle

Friday 23 October 2026

Other Hurdle GTY 17.5f Class 0 5 runners
Our highest-rated★ Best value PUPPET MASTER Our price 7/4 · Available 5/2 We make it 36% · the market says 29% · +25%
Why the model rates PUPPET MASTER top (36% chance)

Preferred to Speisialta on the strength of better class form and a better record on this ground, he was third when running 3 days ago and is well treated; the yard's 7% in the last two months is the snag.

  • ✓ Preferred to Speisialta, better proven at this class and better on the ground
  • ✓ Well treated on official ratings
  • ✓ Finished 3rd last time
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much
  • ✕ Ciaran Murphy's yard quiet lately, 7% in the last two months

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
PUPPET MASTER ★ Top Rated
J: Eoghan Finegan(5) · T: Ciaran Murphy
Form: 51233
3.5 ·market 29%
36%
29%
3.5
 +25%
2
SPEISIALTA
J: Eoin Staples(5) · T: Anthony John Black
Form: 01203 · CD
3.5 ·market 29%
20%
29%
3.5
 -29%
3
COMBS
J: Danny Gilligan · T: Gordon Elliott
Form: 46910
4.5 ·market 22%
18%
22%
4.5
 -18%
4
FRIARY ROAD
J: Josh Williamson(3) · T: T M Walsh
Form: F6327
4.0 ·market 25%
16%
25%
4.0
 -34%
5
CRYSTABEL
J: Daniel King · T: John Patrick Ryan
Form: 13545 · CD
13.0 ·market 8%
9%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +21%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org