Cheltenham 13:15: Value Analysis

William Hill Epic Boosts Handicap Hurdle Race

Friday 23 October 2026

Handicap Hurdle GD 20.0f Class 3 13 runners

Our highest-rated★ Best value SUNNY SOUTH WEST Our price 5/2 · Available 10/3 We make it 28% · the market says 23% · +22%

Why the model rates SUNNY SOUTH WEST top (28% chance)

Ticks most boxes: well treated on official ratings, fresh 15 days after finishing runner-up, proven against this class of rival and already experienced over today's trip and going. The leap from a 78-rated field to 123 is the query.

✓ Well treated on official ratings
✓ Ideally fresh, 15 days since its last run
✓ Strong record against this class of rival
✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown
✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	SUNNY SOUTH WEST ★ Top Rated J: Michael Kenneally(3) · T: Edward F Power Form: 25031 4.3 ·market 23%	28%	23%	4.3	+22%
2	JOHN BARBOUR J: Liam Harrison · T: Fergal O'Brien Form: 212P1 · D 13.0 ·market 8%	14%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+76%
3	FRONTIER PRINCE J: Jack Hogan · T: Fergal O'Brien Form: 33401 · D 11.0 ·market 9%	10%	9%	11.0	+7%
4	MORNING MAYHEM J: Kielan Woods · T: Nick Scholfield Form: 44122 12.0 ·market 8%	9%	8%	12.0	+11%
5	HANDLETHEKETTLE J: Gavin Sheehan · T: Jamie Snowden Form: 112 · D 11.0 ·market 9%	7%	9%	11.0	-26%
6	LA PINSONNIERE J: James Bowen · T: Nicky Henderson Form: 32934 15.0 ·market 7%	6%	7%	15.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-9%
7	AL GASPARO J: Mr Lucas Murphy(7) · T: Kayley Woollacott Form: 3 · D 23.0 ·market 4%	5%	4%	23.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+6%
8	CAN HAPPEN J: Miss Georgie Benson(7) · T: Peter John Flood Form: 12951 19.0 ·market 5%	4%	5%	19.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-20%
9	CLOONAINRA J: Paddy Hanlon(5) · T: John McConnell Form: 50729 · D 41.0 ·market 2%	4%	2%	41.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+66%
10	EAST INDIA EXPRESS J: Freddie Gordon · T: Nicky Henderson Form: P920P · CD 9.5 ·market 11%	4%	11%	9.5 ▲ Edge increasing	-66%
11	CROOKED PATH J: Jonathan Burke · T: James Owen Form: 12231 5.0 ·market 20%	4%	20%	5.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-82%
12	NORMAN FLETCHER J: Jamie Brace(5) · T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies Form: 25322 8.5 ·market 12%	3%	12%	8.5	-71%
13	SNATCH A GLANCE J: Fern O'Brien(5) · T: Fergal O'Brien Form: F3343 19.0 ·market 5%	3%	5%	19.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-40%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org