Doncaster 12:55: Value Analysis

Richard James Hone Memorial Handicap Stakes

Saturday 24 October 2026

Other Handicap HVY 5.0f Class 2 10 runners
Our highest-rated AL SHABAB STORM Our price 11/4 · Available 5/2 We make it 26% · the market says 29%
No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.
Why the model rates AL SHABAB STORM top (26% chance)

Ticks most boxes: third 14 days ago, the second of back-to-back thirds, eases in grade from stronger company and well treated officially; Appleby's 18% in the last two months offsets the odd blip in consistency.

  • ✓ Has been racing at a higher level than this lately
  • ✓ Ran well last time, finished 3rd
  • ✓ Well treated on official ratings
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry
  • ✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
AL SHABAB STORM ★ Top Rated
J: Harry Vigors(5) · T: Michael Appleby
Form: 01533 · D
3.5 ·market 29%
26%
29%
3.5
 -9%
2
KING OF LIGHT
J: Rossa Ryan · T: Stuart Williams
Form: 60519 · D
6.0 ·market 17%
16%
17%
6.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -2%
3
ROSARIO
J: Cam Hardie · T: Roger Teal
Form: 47103 · D
13.0 ·market 8%
14%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +84%
4
ANCIENT STATE
J: Cieren Fallon · T: Adam Kirby
Form: 52145 · CD
8.0 ·market 12%
9%
12%
8.0
 -31%
5
MILFORD
J: Tom Kiely-Marshall(3) · T: Julie Camacho
Form: 92820 · D
6.0 ·market 17%
8%
17%
6.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -50%
6
SOVEREIGN SPELL
J: Rowan Scott · T: Kevin Philippart de Foy
Form: 31170 · D
11.0 ·market 9%
7%
9%
11.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -18%
7
BOSTON DAN
J: Duran Fentiman · T: Tim Easterby
Form: 01093 · D
17.0 ·market 6%
5%
6%
17.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -8%
8
LUNA A INBHIR NIS
J: Jason Hart · T: Katie Scott
Form: 03626 · D
13.0 ·market 8%
5%
8%
13.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -30%
9
SCHRODINGERS CAT
J: Andrew Mullen · T: Grant Tuer
Form: 60007 · D
26.0 ·market 4%
5%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +22%
10
ETERNAL SUNSHINE
J: Lauren Young(5) · T: Jim Goldie
Form: 21020 · CD
17.0 ·market 6%
4%
6%
17.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -38%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org