Cheltenham 13:10: Value Analysis

William Hill Epic Boosts Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)

Saturday 24 October 2026

Novice Hcap Chase GTS 20.0f Class 3 9 runners
Our highest-rated★ Best value ROCKONLIAM Our price 10/3 · Available 9/2 We make it 24% · the market says 18% · +31%
Why the model rates ROCKONLIAM top (24% chance)

Three straight wins, experience of today's trip and ground, and a good mark: he steps up in company off a 77-day break, but his record against this class makes him the one they must beat.

  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
  • ✓ Well treated on official ratings
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much
  • ✕ Unproven at this level

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
ROCKONLIAM ★ Top Rated
J: Darragh O'Keeffe · T: Henry de Bromhead
Form: 34111 · D
5.5 ·market 18%
24%
18%
5.5
 +31%
2
LISBANE PARK
J: Brendan Powell · T: Joe Tizzard
Form: 14322
4.3 ·market 23%
18%
23%
4.3
 -21%
3
SPECTACULARSUNRISE
J: Sam Twiston-Davies · T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
Form: 26961 · D
4.0 ·market 25%
14%
25%
4.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -45%
4
AS LEGENDS HAVE IT
J: Ben Jones · T: Ben Pauling
Form: 3F411 · D
8.0 ·market 12%
12%
12%
8.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -4%
5
DE TEMPS EN TEMPS
J: Freddie Keighley(5) · T: Martin Keighley
Form: 116U3 · CD
7.0 ·market 14%
10%
14%
7.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -32%
6
SOGNA IN GRANDE
J: Ciaran Gethings · T: Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls
Form: 114
13.0 ·market 8%
8%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +3%
,
PALAMON NR
J: Harry Skelton · T: Dan Skelton
Form: 53512 · D
— ·market —
—
—
—
 — Withdrawn
7
BALLYKINLAR
J: James Bowen · T: Mickey Bowen
Form: 07033 · D
19.0 ·market 5%
6%
5%
19.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +6%
8
OMOORE PARK
J: Sean Bowen · T: Martin Keighley
Form: 06793 · D
23.0 ·market 4%
5%
4%
23.0
 +26%
9
SONY BILL
J: Harry Cobden · T: Faye Bramley
Form: 33P50
41.0 ·market 2%
3%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +39%
,
KAHAVARI NR
J: Jack Tudor · T: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero
Form: 25221 · D
— ·market —
—
—
—
 — Withdrawn

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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