Newbury 13:18: Value Analysis

Grundon Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes (Div I)

Saturday 24 October 2026

Amateur SFT 12.0f Class 5 13 runners

Our highest-rated FLASH BARDOT We make it 17% · the market says —

No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.

Why the model rates FLASH BARDOT top (17% chance)

Preferred to Chambers on trip and ground, well treated and fresh having run 14 days ago, he drops from a 108-rated field into this 63-rated company for a yard 16% in the last two months; consistency the one query.

✓ Preferred to Chambers, better suited by the trip and better on the ground
✓ Henrietta C Knight's yard in form, 16% winners in the last two months
✓ Well treated on official ratings
✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	FLASH BARDOT ★ Top Rated J: Mr Jack Loughnane(7) · T: Henrietta C Knight Form: 32748 · CD — ·market —	17%	—	—	—
2	CHAMBERS J: Mr James Hills(5) · T: Faye Bramley Form: 66714 — ·market —	12%	—	—	—
3	FAIR DINKUM J: Mr Lucas Murphy(3) · T: Jeremy Scott Form: 43454 — ·market —	11%	—	—	—
4	ACTIVIST J: Mr Jack Pipe(7) · T: David Pipe Form: 54P28 — ·market —	9%	—	—	—
5	ROCK ON PEDRO J: Mr James King · T: Olly Murphy Form: 133 · D — ·market —	8%	—	—	—
6	BIG BEAR HUG J: Mr Lewis Kent(3) · T: Jim Boyle Form: 77557 · D — ·market —	8%	—	—	—
7	POWER OF PRAYER J: Miss Tess Hoppeler(7) · T: George Baker Form: 55377 · D — ·market —	7%	—	—	—
8	BIG WIN J: Mr Henry Callan · T: James Owen Form: 52142 · D — ·market —	7%	—	—	—
9	RAINTOWN J: Miss Scarlett Dorricott(5) · T: J. S. Moore Form: 31237 · CD — ·market —	5%	—	—	—
10	LOVE YOU BACK J: Mr Cian Murphy(5) · T: Jamie Moore & Josh Moore Form: 22FP2 · D — ·market —	5%	—	—	—
11	WILTSHIRE WONDER J: Miss Jessica Llewellyn(5) · T: Bernard Llewellyn Form: 50568 · D — ·market —	4%	—	—	—
12	MYSTICAL MABEL J: Miss Alice Crowley(7) · T: Jamie Moore & Josh Moore Form: F4063 — ·market —	3%	—	—	—
13	ROGUE SEA J: Mr J J Murphy-Knight(5) · T: John & Rhys Flint Form: 76F08 — ·market —	3%	—	—	—

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org