Wexford 12:50: Value Analysis
William Hill Challenge Series Irish EBF Beginners Steeplechase
Sunday 25 October 2026
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
- ✓ Ran well three runs back
- ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
- ✕ Seamus Neville's yard quiet lately, 8% in the last two months
- ✕ First run for 171 days, so fitness is a question
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
LONG BRANCH
★ Top Rated
15/2
·market 12%
|
16% |
12% |
15/2
▲ Edge increasing
|
+40% | |
| 2 |
CAHER ROES DEN
9/4
·market 31%
|
16% |
31% |
9/4
|
-49% | |
| 3 |
NO LOOKING BACK
10/1
·market 9%
|
13% |
9% |
10/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+45% | |
| 4 |
KIR
9/2
·market 18%
|
10% |
18% |
9/2
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-43% | |
| 5 |
MULLAGHGLOSS
9/1
·market 10%
|
8% |
10% |
9/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-17% | |
| 6 |
CHASE THE MOON
5/1
·market 17%
|
8% |
17% |
5/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-53% | |
| 7 |
PATS LEGACY
12/1
·market 8%
|
6% |
8% |
12/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-27% | |
| 8 |
MAVERICK MACK
16/1
·market 6%
|
6% |
6% |
16/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-5% | |
| 9 |
ARCLAND
12/1
·market 8%
|
5% |
8% |
12/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-41% | |
| 10 |
LISNAGAR FORTUNE
50/1
·market 2%
|
4% |
2% |
50/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+124% | |
| 11 |
KELYA
16/1
·market 6%
|
3% |
6% |
16/1
|
-46% | |
| 12 |
KING IN LOVE
25/1
·market 4%
|
2% |
4% |
25/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-35% | |
| 13 |
HESASMOOTHOPERATOR
50/1
·market 2%
|
2% |
2% |
50/1
|
+21% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org