Redcar 12:25: Value Analysis
racingtv.com/Freetrial British Ebf Novice Stakes
Monday 26 October 2026
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
⚠ Vulnerable favourite: PROCYON is the market favourite (6/5) but the model rates it only 15% vs the market's 45%. It may be beatable.
Ticks most boxes: holds his own against this class of rival, ran well over his last three starts and Rowan Scott is in form at 15% in the last two months. Unexposed still, and stepping up beyond what he has shown.
- ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
- ✓ Rowan Scott riding well, 15% strike rate in the last two months
- ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
- ✕ Yet to be tested against much
- ✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
OLYMPIACOS
★ Top Rated
7/1
·market 12%
|
24% |
12% |
7/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+91% | |
| 2 |
ARCTIC FORCE
6/4
·market 40%
|
21% |
40% |
6/4
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-47% | |
| 3 |
PROCYON
6/5
·market 45%
|
15% |
45% |
6/5
▲ Edge increasing
|
-67% | |
| 4 |
SAYAARR
8/1
·market 11%
|
10% |
11% |
8/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-5% | |
| 5 |
BINKSY BOY
100/1
·market 1%
|
7% |
1% |
100/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+585%market disagrees | |
| 6 |
LEABANK
50/1
·market 2%
|
6% |
2% |
50/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+186% | |
| 7 |
HALWAY THE LADS
25/1
·market 4%
|
5% |
4% |
25/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+22% | |
| 8 |
LADY MOMBASA
66/1
·market 1%
|
4% |
1% |
66/1
|
+191% | |
| 9 |
RAGUEL
20/1
·market 5%
|
3% |
5% |
20/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-27% | |
| 10 |
EAGLES ETERNAL
100/1
·market 1%
|
3% |
1% |
100/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+200% | |
| 11 |
HERES TO IT
100/1
·market 1%
|
2% |
1% |
100/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+119% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org