Hereford 12:48: Value Analysis

BETTING.BET Free Racing Tips 'hands And Heels' Handicap Hurdle Race(conditional & Amateur Jockeys') (Part Of The Racing Excellence Series)

Monday 26 October 2026

Amateur GTF 19½f Class 5 12 runners

What the abbreviations mean

Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.

We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)

Our highest-rated LUNAR ORBIT Our price 7/2 · Available 9/1 We make it 21% · the market says 10%

Model standout LUNAR ORBIT model rates it 21% but the market has it an outsider (9/1). A higher-risk each-way angle.

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: INCA is the market favourite (7/4) but the model rates it only 8% vs the market's 36%. It may be beatable.

Why the model rates LUNAR ORBIT top (21% chance)

Finds a weaker race dropping from far stronger company, with Dan Skelton's yard in form at 23% in the last two months. Strong record against this class and second two starts back; the good to firm is the one query.

✓ Dan Skelton's yard in form, 23% winners in the last two months
✓ Ran well three runs back
✓ Has been racing at a higher level than this lately
✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race
✕ The good to firm is a question mark for it

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Typical odds	Value
1	LUNAR ORBIT ★ Top Rated J: Dominic Lewis(3) · T: Dan Skelton Form: 3152P 9/1 ·market 10%	21%	10%	9/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+113%
2	GOD OF FIRE J: James Murray(3) · T: Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill Form: 14255 9/2 ·market 18%	17%	18%	9/2	-4%
3	PRAIRIE DIAMOND J: Mr Harry Hoyles(5) · T: Martin Keighley Form: 71P23 · CD 10/3 ·market 23%	17%	23%	10/3	-25%
4	RAFFLES NOBU J: Nathan Andrews(3) · T: Nick Scholfield Form: 35257 12/1 ·market 8%	10%	8%	12/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+36%
5	INCA J: Roisin Leech(3) · T: Sophie Leech Form: 64441 · D 7/4 ·market 36%	8%	36%	7/4	-78%
6	ESTATE PLANNING J: Jack Stenhouse · T: Bernard Llewellyn Form: 84054 8/1 ·market 11%	6%	11%	8/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	-47%
7	LORD CAUVELLIERE J: Osian Radford(3) · T: Sheila Lewis Form: 456P7 22/1 ·market 4%	5%	4%	22/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	+14%
8	AVADA KEDAVRA J: Richard Upton(3) · T: David Bridgwater Form: 53116 14/1 ·market 7%	5%	7%	14/1 ▲ Edge increasing	-29%
9	CHILLHI J: Megan Bevan · T: Barry Murphy Form: 7P797 · D 50/1 ·market 2%	3%	2%	50/1	+67%
10	MISS KASSIOPI J: Miss Clara Brewitt(3) · T: Max Young Form: 3721P · CD 33/1 ·market 3%	3%	3%	33/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+6%
11	CHARLES MORIN J: Billy Marshall · T: Barry Murphy Form: 01435 20/1 ·market 5%	2%	5%	20/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	-57%
12	KING OF THE BRONX J: Mr Evan Daly · T: Syd Hosie Form: 9066 50/1 ·market 2%	2%	2%	50/1	-7%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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See all of today's value flags → Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org