Redcar 12:55: Value Analysis
Ebf "double Trigger" Novice Stakes
Monday 26 October 2026
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
Solid claims across the board: William Haggas's yard is in form at 15% in the fortnight, James Doyle is striking at 22% in the last two months and he ran well two starts back. Unexposed, with consistency to prove.
- ✓ James Doyle riding well, 22% strike rate in the last two months
- ✓ Ran well two runs back
- ✓ William Haggas's yard in form, 15% winners in the fortnight
- ✕ Consistency has been a worry
- ✕ Yet to be tested against much
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
IRON STONE LAD
★ Top Rated
4/5
·market 56%
|
35% |
56% |
4/5
|
-37% | |
| 2 |
CALDO
11/8
·market 42%
|
19% |
42% |
11/8
▲ Edge increasing
|
-56% | |
| 3 |
CHARMED BOY
14/1
·market 7%
|
11% |
7% |
14/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+71% | |
| 4 |
SKYLAR
11/1
·market 8%
|
10% |
8% |
11/1
|
+19% | |
| 5 |
SIR TERRY HADLEY
28/1
·market 3%
|
7% |
3% |
28/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+102% | |
| 6 |
SIR NICHOLAS
16/1
·market 6%
|
6% |
6% |
16/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-5% | |
| 7 |
DJ HARRY
80/1
·market 1%
|
6% |
1% |
80/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+348%market disagrees | |
| 8 |
SARDINERO
20/1
·market 5%
|
4% |
5% |
20/1
|
-18% | |
| 9 |
GIANT DAN BURN
50/1
·market 2%
|
3% |
2% |
50/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+69% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org