Newton Abbot 13:21: Value Analysis
St. Austell Brewery Novices' Hurdle Race
Wednesday 28 October 2026 · result below
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
This race is complete. Explore the latest card next.
See today's races →Vango Can Go (1/4) controlled this from the front, winning in a rout, 12 lengths clear of the second. Crystal Orchard (11/2) chased him home. The exchange briefly made Crystal Orchard the likely winner mid-race (matched at 2.02 on Betfair, from 7.4 before the off) before he was pegged back, one for the notebook. Our model made him its top pick at 57%.
Strongest case: raced at a higher level lately with a good record against this class, and Skelton is 27% in the last two months, 31% with the yard. Fitness after 231 days and a beaten last run are the queries.
- ✓ Harry Skelton riding well, 27% strike rate in the last two months
- ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
- ✓ Harry Skelton and Dan Skelton win 31% together
- ✕ Well beaten last time
- ✕ First run for 231 days, so fitness is a question
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
VANGO CAN GO
★ Top Rated
1/5
·market 80%
|
57% |
80% |
1/5
|
-29% | Winner |
| 2 |
CRYSTAL ORCHARD
11/2
·market 15%
|
20% |
15% |
11/2
▲ Edge increasing
|
+30% | 2nd |
| 3 |
SIRGREG
12/1
·market 8%
|
12% |
8% |
12/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+61% | 4th |
| 4 |
JPR TWO
14/1
·market 7%
|
10% |
7% |
14/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+57% | 3rd |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org