Nottingham 13:16: Value Analysis
Halloween Spooktacular Fireworks 31st Oct Handicap Stakes
Wednesday 28 October 2026 · result below
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
Solid claims across the board: eases in grade from stronger company, shaped better than his fourth when he ran 12 days ago, is well treated on ratings and holds a strong record against this class. Weight the one enemy.
- ✓ Preferred to Alnofoor, better proven at this class and better suited by the trip
- ✓ Race-fit, having run 12 days ago
- ✓ Well treated on official ratings
- ✕ Carries plenty of weight today
- ✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
DURAN
★ Top Rated
9/4
·market 31%
|
27% |
31% |
9/4
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-12% | 5th |
| 2 |
ALNOFOOR
11/4
·market 27%
|
17% |
27% |
11/4
|
-36% | 6th |
| 3 |
CAMPENAERTS
20/1
·market 5%
|
13% |
5% |
20/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+183% | 2nd |
| 4 |
LEVEL UP
22/1
·market 4%
|
11% |
4% |
22/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+142% | 8th |
| 5 |
RUN THIS WAY
6/1
·market 14%
|
8% |
14% |
6/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-47% | 3rd |
| , |
DRAGON SPIN
NR
—
·market —
|
— |
— |
—
|
— | Withdrawn |
| 6 |
EDGEWATER DRIVE
12/1
·market 8%
|
7% |
8% |
12/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-6% | 9th |
| 7 |
RAMBUSO CREEK
5/1
·market 17%
|
7% |
17% |
5/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-57% | 4th |
| 8 |
VINCE LAMOUR
9/1
·market 10%
|
7% |
10% |
9/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-30% | Winner |
| 9 |
LOCO LOBO
50/1
·market 2%
|
3% |
2% |
50/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+57% | 7th |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org