Bath 12:42: Value Analysis
David Cole Memorial EBF Novice Stakes (Div I)
Thursday 29 October 2026
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
Ticks most boxes: ran well over its last three runs, arrives ideally fresh having run 16 days ago, and Hector Crouch is in good heart at 13% in the last two months. Patchy consistency the quibble.
- ✓ Hector Crouch riding well, 13% strike rate in the last two months
- ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
- ✓ Ideally fresh, 16 days since its last run
- ✕ Consistency has been a worry
- ✕ Yet to be tested against much
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
LADY PHILLIPS
★ Top Rated
8/13
·market 64%
|
31% |
64% |
8/13
|
-51% | |
| 2 |
THE CAN CAN MAN
9/1
·market 10%
|
22% |
10% |
9/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+124% | |
| 3 |
SILENT WISDOM
12/1
·market 8%
|
10% |
8% |
12/1
|
+35% | |
| 4 |
WALCOURT
6/1
·market 14%
|
8% |
14% |
6/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-42% | |
| 5 |
BOOMSHAKALAK
80/1
·market 1%
|
5% |
1% |
80/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+327%market disagrees | |
| 6 |
BUXTED FLYER
9/1
·market 10%
|
4% |
10% |
9/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-56% | |
| 7 |
CIVILON
33/1
·market 3%
|
4% |
3% |
33/1
|
+32% | |
| 8 |
RADICAL BAY
40/1
·market 2%
|
4% |
2% |
40/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+50% | |
| 9 |
DONT TEMPT HARRY
28/1
·market 3%
|
3% |
3% |
28/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-9% | |
| 10 |
ROOS RACING ROCKET
12/1
·market 8%
|
3% |
8% |
12/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-64% | |
| 11 |
SMASH ROYALE
125/1
·market 1%
|
3% |
1% |
125/1
|
+227% | |
| 12 |
ZULU CHIEFTAIN
33/1
·market 3%
|
2% |
3% |
33/1
|
-29% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org