Punchestown 13:05: Value Analysis
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden
Thursday 29 October 2026
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
Eases in grade after meeting stronger company 12 days ago, and the form of its last three runs stands up well at this level; Nathan Crosse's 4% in the last two months and patchy consistency are the niggles.
- ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
- ✕ Nathan Crosse cold lately, 4% in the last two months
- ✕ Consistency has been a worry
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
WUNDERSCHON
★ Top Rated
11/8
·market 42%
|
44% |
42% |
11/8
|
+4% | |
| 2 |
ANYMORE
11/1
·market 8%
|
11% |
8% |
11/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+35% | |
| 3 |
PETTICOAT BAY
7/2
·market 22%
|
10% |
22% |
7/2
▲ Edge increasing
|
-53% | |
| 4 |
HANDSOFFSHESMINE
28/1
·market 3%
|
7% |
3% |
28/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+117% | |
| 5 |
LAN DE GHAIRE
12/1
·market 8%
|
7% |
8% |
12/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-11% | |
| 6 |
UNREAL FRIEND
12/1
·market 8%
|
6% |
8% |
12/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-19% | |
| 7 |
LOOKING FOR LOVE
20/1
·market 5%
|
5% |
5% |
20/1
|
+7% | |
| 8 |
SAN JUAN DE LOPE
4/1
·market 20%
|
5% |
20% |
4/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-77% | |
| 9 |
DUQUESNE BAY
20/1
·market 5%
|
4% |
5% |
20/1
|
-22% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org