Bath 13:12: Value Analysis
David Cole Memorial EBF Novice Stakes (Div II)
Thursday 29 October 2026
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
Strong record against this class of rival, solid over its last three runs and ideally fresh having run 15 days ago, so it ticks most boxes, even if the step up beyond its proven level is unknown territory.
- ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
- ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
- ✓ Ideally fresh, 15 days since its last run
- ✕ Yet to be tested against much
- ✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
SPACE BOB
★ Top Rated
4/5
·market 56%
|
32% |
56% |
4/5
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-43% | |
| 2 |
DIVINE RHYTHM
10/3
·market 23%
|
16% |
23% |
10/3
▲ Edge increasing
|
-30% | |
| 3 |
MASTER CELERITAS
8/1
·market 11%
|
12% |
11% |
8/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+7% | |
| 4 |
HOT PORT
10/1
·market 9%
|
11% |
9% |
10/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+21% | |
| 5 |
CONSORTIUM
10/1
·market 9%
|
6% |
9% |
10/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-35% | |
| 6 |
DANCING GOLD
22/1
·market 4%
|
5% |
4% |
22/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+20% | |
| 7 |
RUPERTSBEENRUMBLED
100/1
·market 1%
|
5% |
1% |
100/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+367%market disagrees | |
| 8 |
PERFECT ECHO
125/1
·market 1%
|
4% |
1% |
125/1
|
+464%market disagrees | |
| 9 |
SARFRAJ
50/1
·market 2%
|
4% |
2% |
50/1
|
+82% | |
| 10 |
SEED
16/1
·market 6%
|
3% |
6% |
16/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-43% | |
| 11 |
VIRTUE CHARITY
100/1
·market 1%
|
2% |
1% |
100/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+102% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org