Newmarket 11:35: Value Analysis
Newmarket Challenge Whip Handicap Stakes
Friday 30 October 2026
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
Ticks most boxes: the Gosdens are flying at 21% in the last two months, she won two starts back and is well treated, with trip and going proven. Against her, patchy consistency, a 52-day break and Havlin's 6% fortnight.
- ✓ John & Thady Gosden's yard in form, 21% winners in the last two months
- ✓ Ran well two runs back
- ✓ Well treated on official ratings
- ✕ Consistency has been a worry
- ✕ Robert Havlin cold lately, 6% in the fortnight
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
DOVE TALE
★ Top Rated
15/8
·market 35%
|
27% |
35% |
15/8
|
-22% | |
| 2 |
DOMINATION
9/2
·market 18%
|
24% |
18% |
9/2
▲ Edge increasing
|
+30% | |
| 3 |
DIALSTONE
4/1
·market 20%
|
18% |
20% |
4/1
|
-8% | |
| 4 |
WILD VIOLET
9/1
·market 10%
|
11% |
10% |
9/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+10% | |
| 5 |
TROPICAL SANDS
7/1
·market 12%
|
11% |
12% |
7/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-16% | |
| 6 |
FIRST OFFICER
11/2
·market 15%
|
9% |
15% |
11/2
|
-39% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org