Newmarket 12:05: Value Analysis
German G1 Racecourses Thank World Pool British EBF Novice Stakes (Colts And Geldings Only) (Div I)
Friday 30 October 2026
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
Solid claims across the board: he has run well over his last three, holds a strong record against this class and comes back 18 days on, though he is stepping up in grade and remains lightly tested.
- ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
- ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
- ✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
- ✕ Yet to be tested against much
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
SOLO QUEST
★ Top Rated
evens
·market 50%
|
22% |
50% |
evens
|
-55% | |
| 2 |
AFIF
7/1
·market 12%
|
18% |
12% |
7/1
|
+43% | |
| 3 |
HIGH SUMMER
8/1
·market 11%
|
15% |
11% |
8/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+38% | |
| 4 |
HIERAX
11/1
·market 8%
|
11% |
8% |
11/1
|
+35% | |
| 5 |
ALFONSO
22/1
·market 4%
|
6% |
4% |
22/1
|
+36% | |
| 6 |
ARKAT
12/1
·market 8%
|
6% |
8% |
12/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-28% | |
| 7 |
BIG EFFORT
20/1
·market 5%
|
5% |
5% |
20/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+2% | |
| 8 |
MEDVEDEV
11/1
·market 8%
|
4% |
8% |
11/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-48% | |
| 9 |
REIGN OVER ALL
8/1
·market 11%
|
4% |
11% |
8/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-66% | |
| 10 |
ODELL
33/1
·market 3%
|
3% |
3% |
33/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+12% | |
| 11 |
MR TWIG
150/1
·market 1%
|
3% |
1% |
150/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+316%market disagrees | |
| 12 |
SECGAN
40/1
·market 2%
|
3% |
2% |
40/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+4% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org