Uttoxeter 12:35: Value Analysis

Kalahari King 'chasing Excellence' Beginners' Steeple Chase

Friday 30 October 2026

Other Chase GD 16f Class 3 3 runners

What the abbreviations mean

Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.

We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)

Our highest-rated HOLD THE SERVE Our price 4/5 · Available 2/5 We make it 57% · the market says 69%

★ Best value CONSTELLATION WALK Our price 4/1 · Available 15/2 We make it 19% · the market says 12% · +64%

Why the model rates HOLD THE SERVE top (57% chance)

Eases in grade after far stronger company, and with three wins in his last five plus a 7lb pull against Count Of Vendome, he sets the standard here; only his patchy consistency gives rivals hope.

✓ Preferred to Count Of Vendome, 7lb better in at the weights
✓ Has been racing at a higher level than this lately
✓ Won 60% of its last five
✕ Consistency has been a worry
✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Typical odds	Value
1	HOLD THE SERVE ★ Top Rated J: Sean Bowen · T: Olly Murphy Form: 11152 2/5 ·market 69%	57%	69%	2/5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-18%
2	COUNT OF VENDOME J: Theo Gillard · T: Donald McCain Form: 21211 · D 5/2 ·market 29%	24%	29%	5/2	-16%
3	CONSTELLATION WALK J: Bryan Carver · T: Harry Fry Form: 46341 · D 15/2 ·market 12%	19%	12%	15/2 ▲ Edge increasing	+64%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

That is one of 45 races today. 45 races are still to run today, all rated. A trial opens every one, plus every UK and Irish race from tomorrow on. Seven days free, nothing charged today. Founder price £14.99 a month, locked for life. 50 founder places, 28 taken.

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See all of today's value flags → Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org